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Author Archives: Felix
The secret to success in the arts
If you live in a world of fat tails rather than thin tails, and if you have, say, 1 million operators, then the lucky few get very lucky indeed, even if they don’t have any skill. … But given the sheer number of people they’re competing against, and given the fact that the number of breakout stars in each field is shrinking rather than growing, the fact is that just about everybody with massive success will have got there by sheer luck. Continue reading
Annals of dubious research, 401(k) loan-default edition
Bob Litan, formerly of the Kauffman Foundation and the Brookings Institution, has recently taken up a new job as director of research for Bloomberg Government, where he’s going to have to be transparent and impartial. But one of his last gigs before moving to Bloomberg — a paper on the subject of people borrowing money from their 401(k) accounts — was neither of those things.
Why using eminent domain for liens is a bad idea
A couple of weeks ago, Matt Goldstein and Jenn Ablan had an intriguing story: Mortgage Resolution Partners, a politically well-connected firm in San Francisco, was shopping to municipalities the idea of using eminent domain to restructure mortgages.
Posted in housing
3 Comments
The future of hedge funds
While sophisticated risk-allocation strategies are all well and good, at some point one has to ask whether it’s worth paying 2-and-20 to get the level of risk you want, and whether you might not be better off over the long term with less risk optimization and also lower fees. If the hedge fund industry doesn’t grow as much as Citi says it will, the reason will surely be that institutional investors will finally have decided that 2-and-20 is too high a price to pay for what they’re getting. Continue reading
Kermit kontest
The fifth annual* Von Salmon Wine Contest returned to the East Village last night, and this one was the nerdiest yet. Rather than use grape varieties (Pinot Noir, Merlot, Rioja) or region (Beaujolais) as the theme of the contest, we … Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
4 Comments
The hateful Jonathan Franzen
I’m a fan of the New Yorker on Facebook. So I should be able to read the Jonathan Franzen essay about David Foster Wallace and Robinson Crusoe, no? No. Turns out that TNY’s clever gimmick about opening the essay up … Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
15 Comments
American Express blows me a raspberry
My name has been pronounced many weird ways over the years, but never quite like this:
Posted in Not economics
1 Comment
On Dave Weigel
People have opinions, and it’s kinda hilarious to see conservatives try to simultaneously complain that Weigel had erroneously been counted as one of their number while at the same time complaining that he wasn’t “objective”. I do believe that Weigel resigned rather than was fired, and it’s easy to see why he’d want to do that after reading the absolutely horrendous column by their lame, sad toady of an ombudsman today.
Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
1 Comment
Email from experts
I got an email from one Ed Grebeck this morning, complaining about a post of mine on the subject of CDOs. It started like this: Felix, I teach “Credit Default Swaps 101” at NYU, a strategist in the global debt … Continue reading
Posted in Econoblog
32 Comments
Umbrellas, cont.
Old friends of mine might remember a question about umbrellas I had back in the 1990s. Has Mark Hurst come up with an answer (page 25)?
Posted in Not economics
22 Comments
Department of weird banners, Cambridge edition
The University of Cambridge is celebrating its 800th birthday this year, and so all around the town are banners like this one: The obvious question, of course, is what is the significance of those dates? … The problem is that although the timeline includes no fewer than 80 different years between 1209 and 2009 (not including the ones at both ends), only one of them coincides with the seven in-between years on the banner: 1446, which marks the founding of King’s College.
Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
36 Comments
Pork in East Williamsburg
We waited in a very long line which did not move for almost one hour, and yet I was completely content drinking a beer patiently (generally not my greatest virtue) while arguing whether or not we were in East Williamsburg or Bushwick as a very loud garage punk band entertained the crowd. Rockstar butcher Tom Mylan carved up the most gorgeous roasted pig while a team of folks assembled tacos for distribution. … Bring it on… large juicy mounds of pork wobbled around on the flimsy plates as we snatched the goods and found a corner to merrily eat in silence.
Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
37 Comments
Eclipse
In the days leading up to today, Stefan was obsessively checking the forecasts and the satellite pictures, looking at an enormous thundercloud, at least 1,000km across, which was right in the way and which would make the eclipse a total wash. … Just as the eclipse was approaching totality, the sun started peeking out from between the clouds, and at one point there was an astonishing sight where you could even see what was left of the sun in the middle of a tiny swatch of blue sky, with sunbeams streaming down between almost-black clouds.
Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
38 Comments
White wine contest results
Looking at the people who judged the taste and not just the price of the wine, the results were close, but unambiguous: the best wine was C, the Massiac — more people judged it their favorite than any other wine, according to a show of hands I asked for, and it also got the highest average rating. … Wines A and C — the two French wines, which were also the most and the least expensive wines respectively — both got 13 (out of 44) votes as being the most expensive wine, and both got 4 votes as being the cheapest.
Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
40 Comments
A public wine contest
Michelle and I have organized a wine contest to be held in the beautiful tasting room at the lovely Pasanella and Son vintners , in the South Street Seaport where Michelle’s Sea Warriors public art exhibition is going to be held. The contest will double as a fundraiser for the art project, which will involve flying pirate flags from vintage lampposts; if you donate more than a certain amount, you get to keep one of the flags for yourself when the project comes down.
Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
48 Comments
Studio Sale
The official announcement: Flat file sale by the work of Michelle Vaughan… there will be drawings/paintings from past series, plus a few special pirate pieces. … Studio Sale Thursday, June 4th 5-8pm 10 Jay Street #609 Brooklyn, NY 11201 (F Train to York Street, or A/C Train to High Street)
Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
49 Comments
Pedestrianize Broadway! (Redux)
Now it seems there’s a non-zero chance that my dream will come true and that the current plan to close off small chunks of the Great White Way is only the beginning: If the Broadway plan does succeed, the next step (though Sadik-Khan is not talking this way publicly) will likely be to close more sections of Broadway until one day in the near future the entire boulevard has been converted to pedestrianized open space. … Imagine a Manhattan with two major parks: one built in the nineteenth century as a confined space of bucolic wonder; the other refashioned in the 21st century as a long, open boulevard slicing the island on the diagonal.
Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
37 Comments
Pig’s head
After grabbing some ingredients at the shop and shoving a pig’s head in my bicycle basket, Felix and I rode over the Williamsburg Bridge back to the East Village while the head wobbled behind me. … After adding fresh water, wine, leeks, onions, garlic, carrots, celery and pepper, we dumped Sally (I had to give it a name, my god it was staring at us all day) back into the pot to simmer for 6 hours.
Continue reading
Posted in Not economics
69 Comments
Another Reason for Banks to be Small
Mike at Rortybomb finds some empirical research on what happens to loan rates when banks get bigger and more consolidated. The results make intuitive sense: as competition falls, loan rates go up. The exception is loans which can be securitized, … Continue reading
Posted in banking
68 Comments
GM’s Whining Bondholders
Andrew Ross Sorkin takes aim at GM’s bondholders today: Not three hours after the president spoke on Monday I received an e-mail message from a group representing G.M. bondholders — people who are likely to have an enormous influence over … Continue reading
Posted in bailouts, bonds and loans
48 Comments
Moving to Reuters
As you might have heard, I’m moving my blog from Portfolio to Reuters. The new blog will be here, and the Reuters RSS feed will be here. But if you read my by subscribing to the felixsalmon.com “all posts” feed, … Continue reading
Posted in Announcements
76 Comments
Extra Credit, Monday Edition
Why size matters: Steve Waldman is a fan of banks getting smaller. In Market Cap, Google Now Bigger Than GE The Taiwanese war against tax evasion: Clever. The Government Crackdown on Peer-to-Peer Lending: I think it should be regulated by … Continue reading
Posted in remainders
15 Comments
Whither This Year’s MBAs?
One thing drilled into every MBA student is that sunk costs are irrelevant, while opportunity costs are paramount. Which is a lesson this year’s graduating class will put to good use. Let’s say that in any given year, there’s a … Continue reading
Posted in education
13 Comments