Author Archives: Felix

Lunch with Nassim Nicholas Taleb

What Felix learned at lunch with the author of Fooled by Randomness and the forthcoming The Black Swan.
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Kerkorian’s weird bid for Chrysler

Kirk Kerkorian has gone public with a low-ball, $4.5 billion bid for Chrysler. He knows the company well: he had a 10% stake in 1995, when he tried to buy it for $20 billion, and held onto that stake until … Continue reading

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Lunch with Nassim Nicholas Taleb

So the lunch with Nassim Nicholas Taleb happened, in a rather pretentious little place on 15th Street, which at least was quiet. I arrived brimming with questions, and left with only a few of them answered, but had a great … Continue reading

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Does the SEC understand what a “principles-based approach” to regulation even is?

The SEC says it wants to move to a principles-based approach to regulation – but then says that doing so means “striking a balance” when it comes to investor protection.
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My other car is a Gulfstream V

Ford’s CEO has a contract which allows his “wife, children, and friends” to use the company jet for personal reasons at company expense, “when he requests it”.
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Should the world worry about a US recession?

The IMF seems sanguine about spillover from the US to the rest of the world. But beware financial linkages!
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Does the SEC understand what a “principles-based approach” to regulation even is?

Marcy Gordon of the AP reports today that the SEC is easing up on some Sarbanes-Oxley regulations, specifically those which “require companies to assess the strength of their internal checks and balances to guard against fraud.” She continues: The framework … Continue reading

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My other car is a Gulfstream V

Good to see Tim Hanrahan of the WSJ in Michelle Leder territory, reading Ford’s latest proxy filing: Chairman William Clay Ford and Chief Executive Alan Mulally were required to use company aircraft for all business and personal air travel for … Continue reading

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Will Goldman Sachs lose money on New Century?

In the wake of New Century’s bankruptcy, Robert Lindsay gets his hands on the official list of the company’s biggest creditors. At the top of the list is Goldman Sachs, followed by Credit Suisse and a who’s-who of other big … Continue reading

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Should the world worry about a US recession?

“An old cliché holds that when the U.S. economy sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold,” says David Wessel today, reporting on new IMF research which seems to show quite the opposite. “Sometimes,” he concludes, “a sneeze isn’t … Continue reading

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How is the population of the US like a 7th grade dance?

Dissecting a National Geographic chart.
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Will Shwarzman wind up buying Chrysler?

Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman is about to officially become a multigazillionaire, once his company goes public and everybody knows what his stake is worth. But in the public mind, will he really have overtaken Henry Kravis as the ne plus ultra of private-equity honchos? Maybe not. What he really needs is not more money, or more lavish parties; he needs to do something which will connect him to the entire country. You know, like buy Detroit.
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How is the population of the US like a 7th grade dance?

The Creativity Exchange finds this chart from National Geographic, wonderfully described by Mark Thoma as “like a 7th grade dance with the boys huddled together on one side of the room, the girls on the other”. Equally wonderfully, Thoma’s commenters … Continue reading

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Will Shwarzman wind up buying Chrysler?

Blackstone’s Stephen Schwarzman is about to officially become a multigazillionaire, once his company goes public and everybody knows what his stake is worth. But in the public mind, will he really have overtaken Henry Kravis as the ne plus ultra … Continue reading

Posted in Econoblog | 2 Comments

Have the Kirchners taken over Argentina?

Argentines have always loved strong leaders, from Peron to Menem. Kirchner’s only the latest in a long line, and if he can keep control of the economy – a very big if – then he and his wife could be running Argentina more or less indefinitely.
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Property chart of the day

There are bad charts, and then there are really cool charts. Props to Nigel Holmes, at the New York Observer, for this one: Just nobody show it to Nouriel Roubini.

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Property datapoint of the day: 767 Fifth Ave worth $4 billion

The General Motors Building, at 767 Fifth Avenue, is the most valuable building in the world.
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Is there any price Macquarie won’t pay?

Can you remember a week of late in which Australia’s Macquarie didn’t buy something?
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Have the Kirchners taken over Argentina?

American Task Force Argentina is a Washington-based lobbying organization financed by vulture funds, which exists to extract money from the government of Argentina and move it instead to the hedge funds and others who own the country’s defaulted debt. They … Continue reading

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Is there any price Macquarie won’t pay?

Can you remember a week of late in which Australia’s Macquarie didn’t buy something? Today, it’s a bunch of UK cellphone and TV antennas. Boring, right? Not when you see the price tag: $5 billion. What’s more Macquarie is opening … Continue reading

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What does it mean for something to be “contained”?

Credit spreads in general are likely to widen out in the wake of the mortgage mess. Or, you could describe the same thing as credit spreads in general widening out in the wake of the French presidential election, or in the wake of the appointment of Felix Salmon to a blogging gig at Portfolio. Causation is a hard thing to demonstrate – which means that containment, as a concept, has relatively little utility.
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Waiting for the commercial-property shoe to drop

Will commercial mortgages of the 2007 vintage turn out to be as misguided as residential mortgages in 2006? Fitch Ratings thinks there’s a serious risk of that. Does this sound familiar to you?

The phenomenon has granted borrowers easy access to capital and prompted the development of new, more highly leveraged debt structures.

Fitch said properties were also increasingly financed with no money down or even with loans for more than 100 per cent of a property’s value as owners borrowed greater amounts upfront to pay interest costs.

Commercial property certainly seems healthy at the moment. But that won’t last forever. I’m frankly surprised, given what we’ve learned about the residential mortgages being written this time last year, that banks haven’t tightened up at all on their commercial-property underwriting standards.

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What does it mean for something to be “contained”?

David Gaffen has a cute piece up at Marketbeat today, looking at the number of news stories on the subprime mess which contain the word “contained” or its cognates. A Dow Jones Factiva search shows that the number of stories … Continue reading

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Property datapoint of the day: 767 Fifth Ave worth $4 billion

John Koblin at the New York Observer today tries to put price tags on New York’s most valuable skyscrapers, and certainly comes up with some eye-popping numbers. The General Motors Building, at 767 Fifth Avenue, is the most valuable building … Continue reading

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Why do all investment-bank CEOs make $40m?

$40 million seems to be the going rate for an investment-bank CEO these days. Might highly-paid traders be part of the reason why?
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