Author Archives: Felix

Trading Obama and Clinton

Posted on January 7, 2008 by Felix

In April, Obama was Google and Clinton was General Electric. By Friday, Obama was the alternative-energy sector while Clinton was Citigroup. Today, we’re told that Obama is Apple, and Clinton is Dell. None of these metaphors are very useful, but … Continue reading →

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Goldman’s Global Alpha Fund: Down 39% in 2007

Posted on January 7, 2008 by Felix

How did the big investment banks’ flagship hedge funds do in 2007? Highbridge Capital, which is controlled by JP Morgan, ended in positive territory for the year (+6%), despite going through a nasty patch this summer. The Global Alpha fund … Continue reading →

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The Power of Market Capitalization

Posted on January 7, 2008 by Felix

What is the correlation between a company’s size, as measured by market capitalization, and its power? I’m not sure how one would measure power, but I don’t think that market cap is a good proxy for it. ADM is worth … Continue reading →

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The $100 Oil Trade: Was Arens the Seller?

Posted on January 7, 2008 by Felix

On Thursday, it seemed that the single $100 oil trade was a bit of a prank: Nymex trader Richard Arens basically spent $600 of his own money in order to be the person who first hit that mark. Now, however, … Continue reading →

Posted in commodities | 1 Comment

Gawker’s decline

Posted on January 7, 2008 by Felix

Nick Denton has for some time been goosing Gawker’s pageviews by encouraging long comments threads on Gawker posts. There’s nothing wrong with that, and Gawker’s comments system is excellent. But it turns out that even Gawker’s loyal commenters will exit … Continue reading →

Posted in Not economics | 36 Comments

O-ba-ma!

Posted on January 6, 2008 by Felix

I watched the New Hampshire debates last night, the first debates I’ve watched this election season. (I would have watched more, I’m sure, but for the fact that I don’t have a television.) And after watching first the Republicans and … Continue reading →

Posted in Not economics | 1 Comment

Against Traffic Lights

Posted on January 6, 2008 by Felix

Roundabouts (traffic circles) are great. But traffic can be astonishingly good at navigating busy intersections even in their absence, and even without traffic lights. The point is that the absence of any traffic lights forces drivers to slow down and … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Weekend Edition

Posted on January 5, 2008 by Felix

E*Trade figure does not compute… New Type of Analysis on the Iowa Results: How the big Republican winners in Iowa were McCain and Giuliani more than Hucakbee. But: Are Political Markets Really Superior to Polls as Election Predictors? A link … Continue reading →

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Payrolls: An Apology

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

Why did I pick today to resuscitate my extremely occasional series of blog entries on the uselessness and irrelevance of the payrolls report? In reality, it would seem that the report was responsible for the decimation of technology stocks, the … Continue reading →

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Witchcraft, and the Profitability of Goldman Sachs

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

Timothy Burke has a long piece up on the limits of rationality; Lance Knobel blurbs it as "the most fascinating post-Iowa analysis I’ve read", but it’s not really about Iowa, and although it’s mainly about politics it’s not only about … Continue reading →

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Bear Stearns: Now Trading Below Book Value

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

Bear Stearns is being clobbered today, down more than 5% to just $79 per share. And it’s passed a major milestone, too. Here’s its fourth-quarter earnings report: Book value on November 30, 2007 was $84.09 per share, based on 136.2 … Continue reading →

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What, Exactly, is Finra Investigating?

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

Paul Jackson has a smart take on the news today that Finra is investigating sales of mortgage-backed securities to retail investors. Basically, MBSs come in two flavors: very safe, and very dangerous. Since sales of very-safe securities wouldn’t trigger a … Continue reading →

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Do Pickup Truck Sales Make Any Sense?

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

I have lived all my life in cosmopolitan cities, I was in my 30s before I got a driver’s license, I know little about cars and less about trucks. So do please help me out on this one: I am … Continue reading →

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Will Buyout-Related Deals Flood the CMBS Market?

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

The CMBS market, where mortgages based on commercial paper office and retail space are traded – has been extremely quiet of late. Good prices are hard to find, but what’s clear is that the primary market has all but disappeared, … Continue reading →

Posted in bonds and loans, housing | Comments Off on Will Buyout-Related Deals Flood the CMBS Market?

Ouch

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

Bill Ackman’s short bets seem to be rather better than his longs. Dow Jones reckons that he made over half a billion dollars in 2007 shorting MBIA and Ambac Financial. Which is good, because his long position in Target seems … Continue reading →

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Payrolls: Still Best Ignored

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

The day after the Iowa caucus, with the media full of horse-race coverage of presidential politics, is a good one to miss the news of the monthly jobs report. Good. The non-farm payroll report, which comes out on the first … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Friday Edition

Posted on January 4, 2008 by Felix

Performance measurement and the challenge of active management: A basic hurdle any active investor should be able to clear. Milan introduces traffic charge: A €10 congestion charge to enter the city center, but you can get around it by installing … Continue reading →

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Blogonomics: Good vs Popular Blog Entries

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Now that Gawker Media’s new pay scheme has been made public, Brian Lam of Gizmodo (a Gawker Media property) explains what the downside is, in practice, of paying for traffic. Gizmodo was one of the four blogs where the new … Continue reading →

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The Power of Round Numbers

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

On Wednesday, Richard Arens decided to celebrate the new year by having a bit of fun. He’s a "local" who trades for his own account on the floor of the Nymex, and he bought exactly one crude oil contract at … Continue reading →

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The Economics of Tom Wolfe

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Tom Wolfe has left the publisher where he spent his entire career, Farrar, Straus & Giroux, and decamped to Little, Brown instead. Why? Money, of course: People involved in the negotiations said on Wednesday that Mr. Wolfe’s advance for the … Continue reading →

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State Street Corp Should be Falling, not Rising

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Another one for the annals of bizarre stock moves: State Street Corp, the parent of State Street Global Advisors is surging to new all-time highs today. This is on the news that the company has breached its fiduciary duties to … Continue reading →

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How a Free WSJ.com can Beat Yahoo Finance

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

PaidContent’s Joseph Wiesenthal has found a research note from Bear Stearns analyst Spencer Wang which is bearish on the revenue prospects for a free WSJ.com, compared to the amount it currently generates in subscriptions. Bloggers love to fisk Wall Street … Continue reading →

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Latin State Oil Company Datapoint of the Day

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

In 2006, Venezuela’s PDVSA had revenues of $100 billion, on which it paid $36 billion in taxes. In 2007, Mexico’s Pemex had revenues of $100 billion, on which it paid $54 billion in taxes. (From "Woes mount for Mexico’s state … Continue reading →

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The Importance of Bonuses

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Roger Ehrenberg has an end-of-year post about when he was happiest. He talks about his personal life, but he also talks about his professional life: There are two distinct times that stand out. The first is when I was 30 … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Thursday Edition

Posted on January 3, 2008 by Felix

Will Home Prices Hit Bottom by June? In flagrante delicto: Tim Price’s picks for 2008. Sensible. Democrats: More Than Health Care: David Leonhardt compares the economic policies of Clinton and Obama. Three Different Cures for Three Types of Financial Crises: … Continue reading →

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