Ben Stein Watch: May 11, 2008

Ben Stein admits this week to having a "febrile brain". Does that mean he has meningitis? I’m not sure that would necessarily explain much, but maybe it helps us a little way along the road to understanding why the NYT continues to publish his silly conspiracy theories – perhaps he’s just too sick to be fired.

In any case, here are a few of the random ideas clustered in this week’s column, plus one which I made up.

  • Ben Stein is a "dog fancier".
  • Ben Stein wants his son to be a hedge fund manager, or maybe a laid-off widower in Lima, Ohio.
  • Hedge fund managers "can plunge world markets into turmoil".
  • According to "Econ 101", the high price of oil should lead inexorably to – wait for it – a lower price of oil.
  • Oil companies "are at the mercy of the traders, as we all are".
  • Traders were also responsible for the bubble in Miami beach condos.
  • Hedge-fund managers are all members of the Global Darwinist Conspiracy, an elite secret society devoted to destroying the planet by any means necessary.

But wait, he’s not done yet. As a grand finalé Stein gets out his crystal ball and tells us what will burst the oil-and-gas bubble:

How will the bubble end? When the crafty old guy with the German short-haired pointers is recovering from his gunshot wounds and wakes up, calls in his associates and says, “Boys, it’s time to sell.” The word flies from the Bentley dealer to the yacht harbor, and, pretty soon, light Brent crude is in full meltdown.

Yeah, "light Brent crude", that famous benchmark. I think it’s related to West Brent Intermediate.

This is all just Stein spinning his wheels. He’s a broken record at this point: anything that Ben Stein doesn’t like (lower stock prices, higher gas prices) must be the fault of Hank Paulson and/or his friends on Wall Street and in the hedge-fund industry. If it weren’t for their evil machinations, then whenever the price of oil rose, new supplies of oil would automagically appear, thanks to the fairy godmother that is Adam Smith’s invisible hand. But like all doers of dastardly deeds, Paulson and his peccant pals will have their comeuppance sooner or later.

I suspect that even meningitic freelancers can be fired from the NYT if they literally copy-and-paste their columns, submitting exactly the same copy that they filed a few weeks earlier. This is then my newest hope, that Stein will forget what he’s already written, and hand in an old column by mistake. But maybe that would only cause the NYT to take even more pity on him than they already have.

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Taxing the Harvard Endowment

John Hechinger reports that lawmakers in Massachussetts are considering a 2.5% tax on the portion of college endowments that exceed $1 billion. Such a tax would raise $1.4 billion a year, with 60% of it coming from Harvard.

Greg Mankiw grumbles that Harvard could or should simply move somewhere else if that happened; you can file that idea under "extremely improbable". Right-wingers always say that if you tax people or institutions with money they won’t pay more tax, they’ll just move; they’re rarely proved right.

But Harvard’s official response is even sillier:

Kevin Casey, a spokesman for Harvard, said the proposal would hurt Massachusetts and colleges because it would damage "stable bedrock institutions" that have helped shield the region from the worst of the economic slowdown.

The Harvard endowment has helped shield the Boston area from the worst of the economic slowdown? How’s that, exactly?

My feeling is that it’s becomes increasingly difficult to make the case that multi-billion-dollar endowments should continue to reap all the benefits of being untaxed. Sure, education is a Good Thing. But with the Harvard endowment growing many times faster than the rate at which it’s spending money, only a tiny percentage each year goes to anything which could reasonably be considered a worthy cause.

All the same, I’m not a huge fan of this proposal; I’d rather see something which falls to zero once the endowment spends 5% of its capital each year – the minimum requirement for private foundations. That would give Harvard an incentive to inject some more money into the region and thereby help shield it from the worst of the economic slowdown.

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Spectator Business

A quick plug for Specator Business, a brand-new magazine that’s just launched in the UK. Its blog, Trading Floor, features the very smart Tim Worstall, and the magazine proper is full of smart columns from the like of my old student newspaper colleague Fraser Nelson. Oh, and I’m in it, too. A taster:

Dimon, at this point, is seen not so much as the successor to Sandy Weill, but more as the heir to John Pierpont Morgan himself, he who stepped in to save the day during the panic of 1907. It’s a role which should by rights have been played by Hank Paulson, the man who stepped down as chief executive of Goldman Sachs to take over as Secretary of the US Treasury. But Paulson has generally been seen as being one step behind the curve, a man who would always prefer to talk the markets around rather than actually do something. Dimon, by contrast, has said relatively little over the course of the past few months, but his actions have spoken very loudly indeed.

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Extra Credit, Friday Edition

Vikram Pandit, Citigroup’s Chess Master: Has shunted Alberto Verme all the way off to Dubai.

Repo home tours: Should you jump in?

Auto Erotic: Dan Neil on the Bugatti Veyron.

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The Healthiest Part of the Financial-Services World

Bloomberg has a big article up on the slightly sleazy world of inter-dealer brokers. It’s a world I know a little about, since I used to have an inter-dealer broker as my roommate.

This chap was eminently qualified for the job: he had the gift of the gab, he could make friends with anybody, and, most importantly, he loved to party. In fact, he loved to party so much that he eventually got fired for failing to show up to the office in the morning one too many times.

But he certainly never made anything like $4 million a year, which is what Tradition is reportedly paying its top CDS brokers, on top of a $4 million signing bonus. Just, wow. Remember that the amount of financial knowledge these guys need is pretty slim: you basically just need to be able to describe a contract, and charm two dealers into coming to terms on a price. Then you match them, take your commission, and move on to the next deal.

Traders love the inter-dealer brokers, for obvious reasons: any time they want they can be taken out on lavish all-expenses-paid no-questions-asked evenings of crazy debauchery. The money spent on entertainment is huge:

Brokerage firms spend as much as 5 percent of their revenue on entertaining, Citigroup’s Fandetti said. On fees of $10 billion, that would come to $500 million for the industry.

Have you ever wondered why there are so many steakhouses in New York and why they all seem to be doing so well despite charging stratospheric prices? There’s your answer right there. And those people who actually pay the thousands of dollars for top tickets to music and sporting events? Yep, it’s the brokers again.

And the great thing about the inter-dealer brokerage business is that it’s risk-free, and involves essentially zero capital (beyond those signing bonuses, of course). It’s hugely profitable for the inter-dealer brokers, it’s hugely enjoyable for the traders, it’s hugely important to the strippers, and it’s a whopping great money sink for investors, bank shareholders, or anybody else not directly involved.

The Bloomberg article does try to hint that the golden age of inter-dealer brokers might be coming to an end, pointing to how ESpeed killed the brokers in the Treasury market. But while the Treasury arm of the industry might have been cut off, the CDS arm which replaced it is much stronger and healthier than the Treasury arm ever was, since inter-dealer brokers thrive on any market where there’s illiquidity and complexity. The industry is as healthy as it’s ever been, and there aren’t many parts of the financial-services world which can say that right now.

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Blogonomics: Why Media Companies Will Buy Blogs

Jerry Abejo has revisited the idea of blog aquisitions, and doesn’t really seem to get it. He’s not only way off the mark factually (Gawker Media gets over 200 million pageviews a month, not 30 million), but he also seems to give far too much weight to people who for whatever reason don’t want to buy blogs. Surely the relevant universe, however, is the smaller number of people who are willing to bid against each other to buy blogs – and Abejo doesn’t seem to have talked to any of those.

Instead, he quotes Seth Alpert of AdMedia Partners, as well as one Russell Crafton, making very weak arguments indeed:

Alpert argues that blogs, in particular blog networks, may have trouble generating reader loyalty, a factor that may give pause to advertisers.

“It doesn’t truly own the audience,” Alpert says. “There’s not a lot of proof that you could generate substantial advertising revenue through a blog network. Most of those companies are fairly small.”

Although blogs like The Huffington Post operate as small newsrooms with a staff of rotating writers, many are tied to a singular voice and talent. This underscores the other most common argument against blog investments, that many of these sites are too closely tied to their authors.

“You’d have to see blogging sites offer more of a broader, online magazine approach, if you will,” says Russell Crafton, a partner at boutique bank Redwood Capital, discussing an approach that might comfort possible investors. “Something like daily postings, news, thoughts, ideas, can get tons of traffic, but it’s not really a sustainable business model beyond that individual,” he adds. “There’s a limited amount of time that people spend on a site like that.”

The first part of Alpert’s argument doesn’t even make sense. Reader loyalty, owning the audience – blogs do that really well, thanks partly to the way that readers are forced to return regularly in order to participate in comments streams.

The second part might be more germane. Blogs are very small fish in the world of big media companies, and even a big blog network might well have difficulty moving the needle, to use the jargon. Then again, Gawker Media has more pageviews than all but the very largest US newspapers: 200 million pageviews a month is nothing to sneeze at, even if you’re the New York Times. And Gawker Media today gets more visitors – and more valuable visitors – than About.com had when the NYT bought it for $410 million in 2005.

As for Crafton, he seems to be saying that a website with "tons of traffic" isn’t going to be worth much unless and until it can increase the amount of time that the average reader spends on it. To which I say: tell that to Google. Blogs generally work on the principle that the more you send people away the more they come back, which is something the likes of Russell Crafton seem to have enormous difficulty understanding. To this day, I have yet to find a single major media company which has non-advertising external links on its flagship homepage. But that will, inevitably, change. And when it does, newspaper and magazine websites are going to find it much easier to acquire those bloggy skills than to try to grow them in-house.

(HT: The very flattering Barry Graubart.)

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Citibank Germany: For the Chop?

Apparently Citigroup is considering selling off as much as $400 billion in "non-core assets", including its retail banking operations in Germany.

Is Citibank Germany really non-core? It would seem so. I bank with Citi in the US, and on Wednesday I used my ATM card to withdraw some euros from the Citibank on Friedrichstrasse in Berlin. The transaction has now appeared on my online banking statement. As a "NONCITIBANK ATM WITHDRAWAL".

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Why is Insider Trading Illegal?

The meme of the day, as admirably summed up by Paul Murphy, is the question of why exactly insider trading is illegal, and whether it should be. I seem to recall a trenchant column by Holman Jenkins in the WSJ around the time of the Martha Stewart case arguing that it shouldn’t be, but I can’t find it right now, partly because the WSJ keeps on telling me that "search is momentarily unavailable".

One thing which gets missed in much of the debate is the difference between a civil and a criminal offense. Some companies, and their shareholders, might conceivably want their employees to be able to trade on insider information, goes the argument – and if that’s the case, then who are the authorities to come swooping in and telling them that they can’t? Similarly, if a company doesn’t want its employees behaving in such a manner, it can contractually oblige them not to, and sue them if they do.

But if we were to move in that direction, no one would ever go to jail for insider trading, and the downside would be limited even when such activity were explicitly and contractually banned. Plus, private companies generally don’t have the resources to uncover insider trading, while regulators do.

I do think it’s important for insider traders to go to jail, if the practice is to be discouraged. Should the practice be discouraged? I think so, yes. One of the engines of stock-market liquidity is the pretense that everybody is on a level playing field. Generally speaking, nations of shareholders have reasonably vibrant economies compared to nations of bondholders. If you want a nation of shareholders, you need to give individuals some faith that they won’t get picked off like so many fish at a poker table. And one way to do that is by making insider dealing illegal.

I do appreciate this is a relatively weak argument, and if insider trading wasn’t illegal I’m not sure I’d be agitating for it to be added to the statute books. What’s more, the Brazilian stock market seems to be doing just fine without any level-playing-field fiction. But it would be nice if there were some compelling economic reason to make insider trading illegal; without it, one feels that the law is overreaching just a little.

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Why Shutter When You Can Sell?

Warner Brothers is closing down its two art-house production companies, Picturehouse and Warner Independent Pictures, with the loss of about 70 jobs. The idea, according to Warner’s Alan Horn, is that "between both New Line and main Warner’s, we had the pieces in place to release any movie we want".

But why not sell Picturehouse and Warner Independent Pictures rather than just closing them down?

Maybe they’re really crap studios, and no one, not even the current management, would be interested in buying them – in which case the real reason for closing them down is surely just that they’re losing lots of money and have no realistic prospect of making money in future. Or maybe the amount of money that Warner could get for the studios is so small that it’s not worth the effort to sell them. That would be sad, and tantamount to laying off 70 people just to save a couple of minor executive headaches.

Then again, 70 people is small beer in the world of film-studio layoffs: when New Line was absorbed into Warner Brothers, there were 600 job losses. And there might be more to come:

Mr. Horn says the decision to shutter the two divisions was made by him, Barry Meyer, the CEO of Warner Bros., and a handful of other top studio executives, and wasn’t ordered by Mr. Bewkes. Getting the movie business in shape is vital for Time Warner, however. If Mr. Bewkes spins off Time Warner Cable and AOL, as many expect him to, Warner Bros. will become a key driver of the company’s earnings down the road.

If that’s true, then eventually Warner is going to have to make money by making movies. In the meantime, however, it looks as though it can make more money by shuttering studios.

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How the Credit Crunch Hits NYC Renters

You thought New York City landlords were notoriously greedy and aggressive? Wait till you see what private-equity companies get up to when they enter the space. Gretchen Morgenson reports:

In the last four years, developers backed by private equity firms have acquired almost 75,000 rent-regulated apartments, Mr. Dulchin said, or about 6 percent of the city’s 1.2 million such units. Major private equity-backed participants in this market include Vantage Properties, which has partnered with Apollo Real Estate Advisors; the Pinnacle Group, a unit of Praedium Capital; and Normandy Real Estate Partners.

These companies often make clear that raising rents is crucial to their financial goals…

The New York City Rent Guidelines Board says the vacancy rate on rent-regulated apartments is 5.6 percent each year. Buildings with vacancy rates far higher suggest resident harassment, tenant advocates say.

Vacancy rates have risen above 20 percent in some buildings owned by Vantage Properties; in some Normandy buildings, the rates exceed 30 percent…

Vantage’s debt service is an estimated $1,098 monthly on each unit, almost 50 percent more than the average rent.

I think this is partly private-equity companies simply being aggressive, and partly a change of plan forced on them by the credit crunch. When Vantage and the others bought these apartments, the negative carry was not much of an issue: they could refinance easily and cheaply as necessary, and over the long term the returns are likely to be very good. But now refinancing is much more expensive and often impossible, which means that Vantage risks losing the apartments unless it can make its monthly nut. And to do that, it needs to get rent-regulated tenants out, and market-rate tenants in.

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When Artists Go Corporate

Time Out New York declared last year that the Kalahari, in Harlem, was the ugliest condo in the city (no mean feat that). "This is reminiscent of the Kalahari Desert," they said. "Municipal buildings in the Kalahari Desert, that is."

But if it’s nasty on the outside, it does redeem itself when it comes to the "internationally acclaimed artists" chosen for the building’s art collection. How that happened I don’t really know: normally the phrase "internationally acclaimed artist" is code for "we’re pulling a fast one on you". But somehow the building managed to end up with an El Anatsui on its walls – something genuinely coveted by a large number of very serious art collectors.

I suppose this marks the point at which El Anatsui starts acquiring a veneer of Corporate Kitsch. I love his work, which looked gorgeous in Venice last sumer, and he’s permanently associated in my mind for some reason with the phrase "rolls like thunder off the walls", which I think I read in an art review once.

But there’s a world of difference between a site-specific installation on a Venetian palazzo, on the one hand, and a tacked-up attempt to further intensify an aura of self-congratulation among buppie condo buyers, on the other.

The scale of Anatsui’s work lends itself naturally to large corporate lobbies, and he might well end up being just another easily-recognizable trophy artist, like Frank Stella or Henry Moore, bought as a badge of sophistication to impress visitors. And, frankly, if he does, then good for him, that’s where the big money is. But his position in the art world will definitely shift if and when that happens, and he’ll lose some of the buzz he’s had until now.

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Neeleman Realizes He Is a Day-to-Day Operator After All

Do you remember David Neeleman’s ouster from JetBlue last year? He seemed happy to put a positive spin on it then:

Neeleman, JetBlue’s largest individual investor, will be non-executive chairman. "I’m not a day-to-day operator," Neeleman, 47, said today in an interview. "It’s not something I enjoyed."

He’s changed his tune now, though.

So what’s it like to be fired from your own company? It’s horrible. It’s something you could never imagine happening to you. It’s not something you’d ever want to wish on anybody–that’s for sure.

Why are you leaving now? My best days were when I was out on the road, serving customers, hanging out in the back galley with crew members. That’s the reason I’m starting an airline in Brazil.

The latter seems to have more believability than the former. But I suspect the real reason that Neeleman’s leaving now is exactly the same as the real reason he was fired as CEO: the stock price.

A year ago, when he was fired, JetBlue was trading at $10.89 per share, down 24% from the depressed levels at which it opened the year. Today, JetBlue is trading at $4.58 per share, down 23% from the depressed levels at which it opened the year. Notice a pattern?

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Extra Credit, Thursday Edition

Raiders of the Lost Arc Elasticity, Part I, Part II, Part III: Robert Jensen finds the elusive Giffen good, with important results. "When we subsidized the price of rice and wheat, people consumed less of them, not more. And in a follow-up paper, we show that when you take together all the consumption substitutions people make, our large subsidies did not improve nutrition at all. In fact, in Hunan nutrition actually declined in response to the subsidy."

Tim Duy: Misunderstanding the CPI: A smart response to David Leonhardt.

Warren Buffett’s Vega Games: How Berkshire could make $6 billion a year for, essentially, nothing.

And finally,

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I Guess This Means AIG Stock Will Rise 10% Tomorrow

I’m with Megan Barnett on this one: the time to announce a 10% increase in your dividend is not when you’re simultaneously annoucing a $7.8 billion loss in a single quarter. Yes, $7.8 billion. I know we’re all getting inured to large numbers these days, but that’s a loss rate of $120 million per working day. At an insurance company. That’s just ugly. It’s good they’re defenestrating promoting to vice chairman their CFO, but I’m slowly becoming disillusioned with this company. Not so long ago, they were the best insurance company in the world. Today, that would be Berkshire Hathaway. And I’m not even sure that AIG is in the top five any more.

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Blogonomics: Judging Bloggers

I’m enjoying this conversation with Dean Rotbart far too much to stop now, even though I suspect it’s of interest only to a handful of my readers. But I’m a blogger! So on I go; you’re more than welcome to stop reading now if you have no more interest in this journalists vs bloggers story.

But anyway, a couple of datapoints for you. Firstly, the Washington Post has decided to syndicate stories from TechCrunch. Those stories might well include blog entries by Erick Schonfeld, who was guilty of propagating unconfirmed rumors yesterday. And Erick Schonfeld, it turns out, was on Dean Rotbart’s list of star journalists under the age of 30 in both 1996 and 1997. Rotbart might like to maintain the distinction between bloggers and journalists, but it’s clearly disappearing in front of his very eyes.

Yet he is fighting his corner valiantly, even unto using words like "vomit" to describe what it is that a blogger does. Although I do have to wonder: since Dean is writing on his blog, does that make him, too, a vomiter of views?

I also fear that Rotbart simply hasn’t been reading the blogs he so happily slanders as "gossip, rumor and snark". Yes, some blogs traffic in such things – but many don’t. How much gossip, rumor and snark is one likely to find at Econbrowser or Alpha Sources? Rotbart is right that the world of finance writing "has needed a livelier delivery for a long time" – doesn’t he think that’s exactly what’s being provided by Steve Waldman, Andrew Clavell, TED, Baruch, and many others? Where in the financial press is the yield curve watched with greater avidity than at Across the Curve? Where is the housing crunch covered in greater or more intelligent detail than at Calculated Risk? Where can world-class economists like Brad DeLong and Dani Rodrik engage in public uncensored debate about current events without having to fight their way through thickets of commissioning editors worried about whether everything they write will be comprehensible to all the readers of the publication in question?

Yet that’s not how Rotbart is thinking:

Some of what I read, in fact much of what I read, is all snark and no substance.

If the blogosphere is a medium, a conversation and a babble, over time it has to be a number of additional things: pertinent, informative, factual (sorry, Felix) and accountable (double sorry, Felix).

You can go to a dinner party and be amused by the slightly inebriated guest who speaks of his financial and sexual conquests. He is certainly more lively than the staid insurance salesman. But after a steady diet month in and month out of hearing about the lush’s financial and sexual adventures, I think most people will grow wary. Especially when the boaster shows up night after night in shabby, worn clothes and no date.

There are far more examples in the old dead-tree world of journalism of financially successful credible news organizations than their are of gossip rags such as the National Enquirer. There is a reason for this. The marketplace votes with its wallet and its feet. Over time, serious, well-researched, accountable writing (dare I say ‘journalism’) has won out repeatedly over gossip, rumor and snark.

What makes Rotbart think that there’s more "substance" in journalism than there is in the econoblogosphere? After all, as I explained on his panel, financial journalists are generally pretty unqualified to understand what they’re writing about, while financial bloggers often do it for a living.

But the problem is that none of the blogs I just mentioned are "accountable" enough for Rotbart. I’m not entirely sure what he means by this, but judging by what he said on the panel, he means that if he doesn’t like what I write, he can complain to my editor, rather than being forced to complain to me directly.

What Rotbart wants, it seems, is to bring the whole editorial org chart crashing down onto the blogosphere – something which neither should nor could ever happen. Does he really think that econoblogs aren’t pertinent, informative, or factual? Which ones is he reading? And why does he think that he’s in any way qualified to "help nurture those quality blogs and bloggers"?

Journalists love receiving one of Rotbart’s "30 under 30" awards because it makes them much more employable, and it looks great on their resumes. But bloggers have their own source of recognition: inbound links. I’m sure I’d be flattered to get an award from a grand-sounding organization run by Rotbart. But I’m much more flattered, every day, when people I hugely respect and admire link to things I’ve written and accept me as a member of their community. What Dean Robart plus $2,500 could do one day a year, Mark Thoma does every day of the year when he links to the best writing around the blogosphere. We have our judges, and they are us.

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Droppe the CEO!

Yes, there really is a company called Charming Shoppes, and it’s in the middle of a full-blown proxy war right now; it’s even managed to delay its annual meeting at the very last second because (ahem) it was having difficulty getting "tabulations in place," according to the general counsel.

My bet is that CEO Dorrit Bern (you know I’m not making this up) is a goner, not that I know anything. But any company with the word "Shoppes" in its name deserves all the opprobrium it gets. Over time, I’ve managed to overcome most of my annoyance at the "International Shoppes" in American airports, but putting this horribly twee pseudoword in the name of a publicly-listed company? That’s just wrong.

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Is UBS Guaranteeing BlackRock’s Returns?

Michael de la Merced got a timely interview with BlackRock’s Laurence Fink this week, and the resulting story is well worth reading. But one question is not cleared up: what does this mean, exactly, on the subject of the $15 billion of subprime paper that BlackRock is buying from UBS?

Mr Fink is being cautious, demanding a 15pc return on the assets or UBS will have to take further writedowns, but the deal remains significant.

Is UBS really guaranteeing BlackRock a 15% return? And if so, what’s the point of "selling" the paper to BlackRock in the first place?

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Are More Patents Really a Good Thing?

Malcom Gladwell’s piece in the latest New Yorker, on Nathan Myhrvold and his company, Intellectual Ventures, is a rollicking good read. But once you’ve read it, it’s worth sobering yourself down a bit with John Gapper. For while

Myhrvold and his merry crew of idea merchants might seem to be a wonderful thing, there are also reasons to be a bit suspicious of them.

Gladwell skips over the main criticism of Intellectual Ventures – that it is a patent troll that operates by coming up with ideas and then registering them to block others in the field. He reports the following fact:

The original expectation was that IV would file a hundred patents a year. Currently, it’s filing five hundred a year. It has a backlog of three thousand ideas.

Well, yes but a track record in filing patents is not equivalent to being inventive. One thing I found unconvincing about Carly Fiorina, former chairman and chief executive of Hewlett-Packard, was that she constantly cited how many patents were being filed under her leadership as if that proved something.

One of the weaknesses of the print media broadly speaking is that it’s pretty bad at reporting on issues of intellectual-property rights run amok. Every so often you’ll get a lawsuit like the one between NTP and Research in Motion, and right-thinking people will shudder at what the patent system has become. But most of the time, patents are unthinkingly accepted as a Good Thing, and the more patents the better. Gladwell’s article is just another one of many articles along such lines, even though it implicitly argues that patents shouldn’t be nearly as powerful as they are, because ideas are rarely original. If only he’d bothered to tease that idea out.

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Tariff Barriers in Practice

Apologies for the late start today, that normallly shouldn’t be a problem for someone six hours ahead of New York. But you’ve never really understood what tariff barriers are until you’ve stood in a German customs office for five hours trying to retrieve a parcel you mailed to yourself so that you didn’t need to worry about British Airways losing it. I now have renewed respect for anybody in the import/export industry. And, if you’re thinking about mailing a parcel to Germany, don’t. I promise you the recipient won’t appreciate the gesture.

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ExpressJet: Probably Toast

Most of the time I have relatively little sympathy for troubled companies. But sometimes they just seem to run into so many body blows simultaneously that you’ve just got to wince a little. And ExpressJet is one of those cases.

Yes, ExpressJet is suffering from high oil prices, as all airlines are. But it is also suffering from something entirely unrelated: the seizing-up of the auction-rate security market, where it parked $65 million of much needed cash. That cash is now unavailable, and ExpressJet has taken an $8.7 million charge against that money – valuing the "cash-like" auction-rate securities at less than 87 cents on the dollar.

Oh, and we’re not done yet. Remember how Frontier Airlines was forced to declare bankruptcy after its credit card company imposed a "holdback" of 50% of all credit-card sales? Well, ExpressJet’s credit card company imposed a 50% holdback on December 31 – and then increased the holdback to 100% at the end of March! (The details on the holdbacks come from an Aviation Week story which isn’t online but which was sent to me by Joe Brancatelli.)

Basically, ExpressJet has precious little cash coming in, because its credit card company insists on holding it all until the passengers have actually flown. And it can’t use a large chunk of the "cash" it has lying around, because most of that is tied up in illiquid auction-rate securities. All while oil prices continue to hit new highs.

ExpressJet recently rejected a takeover bid from SkyWest. If I was SkyWest, I might just think about buying up a large chunk of ExpressJet debt on the cheap right now, in the expectation that I could convert it into equity come the inevitable bankruptcy. After all, has any airline ever recovered without declaring bankruptcy from a situation where it was operating under 100% holdbacks?

On the other hand, ExpressJet’s stock is still trading at the non-negligible level of $3 a share, which gives it a market cap of over $150 million. And it’s actually up substantially over the past month. After all, it’s clearly a takeover candidate, and there’s got to be a chance that shareholders will receive something, even if it does declare bankruptcy.

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Bear Fight

Landon Thomas has a wonderful piece, full of color, on the spat between Jimmy Cayne and Ace Greenberg. Boy can these multimillionaires get petty:

Told that Mr. Cayne, with whom he worked for four decades, had lost much of his net worth and was suffering personally, Mr. Greenberg’s eyes turned cold. “Oh, really. Goodness, that’s a shame,” he deadpanned…

Mr. Greenberg wonders about Mr. Cayne’s continued presence at Bear Stearns. “I don’t understand why he comes in,” Mr. Greenberg said. “He is not employed here anymore.”…

While Mr. Cayne has always given Mr. Greenberg credit for his contributions to the firm, he has poked fun at his offbeat personality, including his nickname, Ace, which Mr. Cayne makes a point never to use. He has a standing order among some of his closer associates: Anyone who uses the name Ace in his presence owes Mr. Cayne $100.

The final straw for Mr. Cayne was Mr. Greenberg’s decision to charge Mr. Cayne a commission of $77,000 for the sale of his six million shares of Bear stock, a rate far above the maximum $2,500 commission that employees pay for a single trade. Since Mr. Cayne was not an employee anymore, he did not deserve such a rate, Mr. Greenberg said. “If he doesn’t like it, he should do his future business elsewhere,” he added.

This, by the way, is Greenberg being coy. I, like Floyd Norris, am looking forward to his unexpurgated memoirs.

Posted in banking, leadership | Comments Off on Bear Fight

Extra Credit, Wednesday Edition

Spreads and paradoxical liquidity: More from Steve Waldman.

Pain and inequality: "The average pain rating is twice as high for those in households with annual incomes below $30,000 as for those in households with incomes above $100,000."

Tropicana files for bankruptcy: Casinos hurting.

Take-Two’s ‘Grand Theft’ has $500 million in sales: In one week.

A White-Collar Sentence of 330 Years

Word Problems for Future Hedge-Fund Managers

Posted in remainders | Comments Off on Extra Credit, Wednesday Edition

Blogonomics: Econoblog Awards

Dean Rotbart is full of bright ideas. Here’s the latest, in a comment on this blog:

Let’s establish a non-profit, volunteer board of people to recommend standards for financial bloggers, dealing with issues such as conflicts-of-interest, disclosure, and accountability.

Second, let’s establish a annual awards recognition for econobloggers who bring honor to their craft… I will pledge the first $2,500 toward this awards program and agree to help raise another $30K (from non-PR, non-corporate folks) to make the program viable. Any takers?

Not me.

I’m going to bash this horse just a little bit further, because I have a feeling that if Dean doesn’t get it – and Dean’s a bright guy – then a lot of other people don’t get it either. Blogging is not a craft which is honored by the good bloggers and sullied by the bad. It’s a medium, a conversation, a babble. Its very variety is its strength.

I emailed Dean yesterday:

Your main argument seems to be that journalists are better at being journalists than bloggers are. And you’re right about that. But that’s not what blogs are for, and it’s not what we claim to do. It’s a bit like complaining about your hairdresser who gave you a little scalp massage after washing your hair, on the grounds that you can get a much better scalp massage from a qualified masseur.

Any board of Dean’s is likely to honor the most journalist-like bloggers: the ones with disclosure and accountability, the ones without gossip and rumor and snark. There might well be some bloggers out there who aspire to "bring honor to their craft", but I’m sure they’re in a minority. And there might be some readers out there who are scared of the wild wild blogosphere, and who would love Dean Rotbart to hold their hand and tell them which blogs are kosher (not to mention the blogs which don’t mix their metaphors). But the broad mass of blog readers would have no interest in this kind of thing, and the broad mass of blog writers would be interested mainly in the money.

What I love most about the blogosphere is, frankly, the anonymous bloggers – people who are in the industry, generally, and therefore can’t reveal their identities, but who know what they’re talking about and are often very funny to boot. The world would be a poorer place without The Epicurean Dealmaker or Tanta or Abnormal Returns or any number of other anonymous econoblogs, but pretty much by definition they don’t have the "accountability" which Dean seems to consider so vitally important.

What blogs would he give awards to? I know that Dean admires Mark Thoma’s excellent Economist’s View blog, but even that might fall short of Dean’s standards, since Mark has a habit of quoting at slightly greater length than some people might consider fair use. If Dean wants full disclosure etc etc he’ll find himself gravitating towards blogs on big media sites like the FT or the WSJ or even Portfolio, which would be really boring and largely defeat the purpose, since the very vibrancy of blogging comes from the fact that it’s mostly not done by journalists.

The fact is, as I said on the econobloggers panel with Dean, that blogs tend to get the readers they deserve. Dean is worried, essentially, that naive readers will stumble across a blog and treat it uncritically, as they would a newspaper. But in practice that doesn’t happen: the people who enjoy clicking around the blogosphere tend to be people who read not only blogs but also newspapers very critically. And in many cases, of course, it’s the commenters who really make a blog great.

Four years ago, I posted a long and boring blog entry on the ethics of blogging. It was generally, and rightly, ignored. Bloggers can and should behave as they will. If you don’t like a particular blogger’s attitude or behavior, don’t read that blog. If you’re a blogger, and you’re sloppy and unreliable, you’ll probably not get much in the way of readers or links from other blogs. In that sense, blogs are self-policing. And they certainly don’t need Dean Rotbart or anybody else to tell them which of them are "bringing honor to their craft".

Posted in blogonomics | Comments Off on Blogonomics: Econoblog Awards

Citi Never Sleeps

Yes, that is the Citi’s Official everything-old-is-new-again slogan. Here’s a real ad (you’ll have to watch a short ad in order to watch the longer ad for Citi, because, um, this is the internet) followed by a fake ad from the folks at Dealbreaker. I know which one I prefer, and it’s not the one where an old black bald guy gets applauded for lifting a red cardboard box into the air.

The WSJ reports that Citi "went to great lengths to save money on the campaign". It shows.

Posted in banking, Media | Comments Off on Citi Never Sleeps

When States Pass Laws the Banks Don’t Like

In many countries there aren’t any long-term mortgages, either because local law makes it difficult to foreclose on a house, or else because of the very real risk that local laws will change and make it difficult to foreclose on a house. The latter is essentially legislation risk, and it’s something that every bank needs to be aware of.

Unfortunately, US banks seem to have forgotten all about legislation risk, until now. It turns out that foreclosure law is set by the states, not by the federal government – and that a number of states are talking about passing laws which will make it very hard for banks to foreclose on properties.

The banks don’t like this, of course. But they’re bound by state law on such matters, and there isn’t any federal foreclosure law, so they’re taking their lumps with equanimity they’ve decided that they’re going to try to rewrite the law on the fly.

There’s this wonderful doctrine called pre-emption, you see, which is used by national credit-card companies and which says that nationally-regulated banks don’t need to worry about state laws, they can just answer to federal regulators and obey federal rules. So the banks’ latest bright idea is that they can do the same thing with foreclosure, even though there aren’t any federal foreclosure rules or regulations.

Of course, this would apply only to nationally-chartered banks. But any local bank wanting to foreclose could simply sell its broken loan to a national bank and get around the state laws that way. Essentially, all state foreclosure laws would be rendered toothless overnight if banks successfully pre-empt state laws.

Fortunately, a pair of Congressmen – Brad Miller (D, NC) and Steve LaTourette (R, OH) – are introducing a bill which will stop the pre-emption racket. As Elizabeth Warren puts it:

If banks don’t like the state laws, they remain free to fight them in the state legislatures or the state courts. They can even make constitutional arguments about takings. But congressmen Miller and LaTourette say they can’t claim that Congress gave them a free pass.

There’s really no reason why national banks should have more free rein to foreclose than local banks, in any state. So with luck the Miller-LaTourette bill will pass. But expect the vote to be close: the financial services industry has a lot of clout in Washington.

Posted in law, Politics | Comments Off on When States Pass Laws the Banks Don’t Like