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Author Archives: Felix
When Fund Managers Change Their Minds
The Swiss fund manager and blogger who calls himself "Baruch" posted a comment on Saturday evening about Research in Motion, currently trading at about $105 a share: I use a standardized DCF approach and have quite a detailed model of … Continue reading
Posted in investing
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Why is Warren Buffett Buying $2.1 Billion of Super-Junky TXU Debt?
Warren Buffett just bought a huge chunk of TXU debt at a $125 million discount to face value: Berkshire bought into two issues by TXU. It purchased $1.1 billion of 10.25% bonds at 95 cents on the dollar to give … Continue reading
Posted in bonds and loans
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Can Thain Make Merrill More Collegial?
John Thain wants to know why his new colleagues at Merrill Lynch can’t just get along: Mr Thain, whose tenure as Merrill chief executive begins on Monday, said in an interview that he believed there was insufficient co-operation between senior … Continue reading
Posted in banking
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Good Ideas on NYC Congestion
Brad Aaron has news of developments with NYC’s congestion pricing plan. If you recall, the mayor put forward a proposal which now needs to be ratified by a whole bunch of constituencies, including the city and state legislatures. But before … Continue reading
Posted in cities
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Euro Disney Datapoint of the Day
From Floyd Norris, all figures split-adjusted: Share price of Euro Disney in 1992: €2,500 Price per share paid by Prince Walid bin Talal of Saudi Arabia when he rescued Euro Disney in 1994: €152 Share price of Euro Disney today: … Continue reading
Posted in stocks
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Blogonomics: Gawker Media
A surprising number of people seem to care that there’s a bunch of turnover going on at Gawker: the latest departures have made both the Observer and the NYT today. That very fact proves Gawker’s continuing media-goldfish-bowl relevance: it’s unthinkable … Continue reading
Posted in blogonomics
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Why Paulson Needn’t Worry About Litigation Risk in his Mortgage Plan
Elizabeth Warren is worried about the investor lawsuits that Hank Paulson’s mortgage-relief plan might trigger. "There is no clear legal basis for doing this kind of wholesale revision of the value of the collateral and forced revision of the mortgage … Continue reading
Signs the Housing Bubble Still Hasn’t Really Burst, Bestseller Edition
The most-gifted book at Amazon.com is Be a Real Estate Millionaire: Secret Strategies for Lifetime Wealth Today. Interestingly, although it’s the most-gifted book, it only ranks at #197 on the overall Books bestseller list. Weird. Are people buying dozens of … Continue reading
Posted in housing
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Ben Stein Watch: December 2, 2007
Ben Stein pops up in a lot of places: Yahoo columns, Fortune videos, scientifically-illiterate movies, brain-dead TV shows, even Portfolio features. One place he doesn’t seem to have much presence, however, is the UK. Which is just as well, because … Continue reading
Posted in ben stein watch
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Extra Credit, Weekend Edition
Market Bailouts and the "Fed Put": Mark Thoma deserves some kind of medal for doing this. Fed speeches are long and dense; Thoma’s worked out a way of making them much easier to read without losing any of their subtleties. … Continue reading
Posted in remainders
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Extra Credit, Weekend Edition
Market Bailouts and the "Fed Put": Mark Thoma deserves some kind of medal for doing this. Fed speeches are long and dense; Thoma’s worked out a way of making them much easier to read without losing any of their subtleties. … Continue reading
Posted in remainders
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How Lucrative Are Repos?
As 130/30 funds and other long-short plays become increasingly popular, the quantity of short-selling going on in the stock market is only likely to increase. That, in turn, means that the amount of stock lending (repos) going on is going … Continue reading
Brad DeLong Solves the Balls in the Hat Game
Brad DeLong has solved the balls in the hat game, and in his comments section provides the solution, which is a psychologically horrible one: you basically have to run your losses and cut your winnings. Keep playing until you get … Continue reading
The Broken State of US White-Collar Criminal Prosecutions
The case of the "NatWest 3" has been all a staple of the UK press all year, but never seems to have got much traction on this side of the pond. In a nutshell, three UK bankers were extradited to … Continue reading
Posted in law
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Fed Rate Cuts Might be Here to Stay
Ben Bernanke speaks pretty clearly, for a Fed chairman, and what he said yesterday left few people in any doubt that he’s minded to cut interest rates again at the next FOMC meeting. This is fabulous for equity markets, since … Continue reading
Posted in fiscal and monetary policy
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Trade the FX Markets for Fun and Losses!
Online poker, it’s a bitch, what with being illegal and all. What we really need is a legal way to lose lots of money online, using an addictive videogame-style interface. Enter eToro: where Reuters 3000 meets Nintendo Wii! There’s some … Continue reading
Posted in foreign exchange
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Treasury’s Subprime Plan and the Danger of Tactical Delinquencies
Of all the ideas floated to help solve the subprime mess, I never really believed that Sheila Bair’s plan to simply lock in teaser rates would be the one to gain traction. As I said when it was first mooted, … Continue reading
Posted in housing
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The Real Problem with Securitization
One of the more annoying memes spreading virulently during this subprime-mortgage crisis is the idea that securitization itself is a ridiculous idea. Subprime borrowers have higher default rates, that’s obvious, and so anybody who honestly thought he owned a AAA-rated … Continue reading
Posted in bonds and loans
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Chandelier Bidding in Padua
The New Yorker’s Mary Norris went to Padua for an auction run by Coys of Kensington, auctioneers of vintage motorcars. She accompanied Giuseppe Favia, who was selling a 1959 Mercedes-Benz 190 D with literally sainted provenance. The auction itself, however, … Continue reading
When Corporate Treasury is a Profit Center
Two newspapers, two countries, two industries, one story. In the NYT, it’s Southwest, whose oil-price hedges are now worth $2 billion. In the FT, it’s Porsche, whose currency hedges have made $371 million this year, and whose stock-market hedges, linked … Continue reading
Posted in derivatives
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Extra Credit, Friday Edition
Speech by SEC director Erik Sirri: "In retrospect, the super senior ABS CDO was nearly a perfect structure to lull even sophisticated traders and risk managers into a state approaching complacency — and blind them at least temporarily to fundamental … Continue reading
Posted in remainders
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Do Stock Prices Reflect Economic Growth?
What would Nouriel Roubini do if he was faced with the choice between writing something short and writing something bullish? Today he spends almost 5,000 words wondering what will happen to stocks if the US economy goes into a recession. … Continue reading
Happy Daniel Davies Day!
Brad DeLong has declared today to be Daniel Davies Day (dcubed, I guess), and the most entertaining celebration thereof is happening over in the comments section of Marginal Revolution, where Tyler Cowen attacks Davies’s attack on Milton Friedman. Cowen’s commenters … Continue reading
Posted in Media
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The X Factor in Terra Firma’s EMI Acquisition
Terra Firma’s investment in EMI doesn’t seem to be working out so well, according to Lina Saigol. But why did Terra Firma’s Guy Hands make the "impulsive acquisition" in the first place? Saigol has a normal-and-boring explanation: Mr Hands wanted … Continue reading
Posted in private equity
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At Google, Shareholders Have No Clout
Robert Cyran is unimpressed with Google’s push into clean energy: The company risks spreading itself too thin — chasing everything from personalized biotechnology to space flight. Its shareholders probably don’t want Mr. Page and other executives spending their time, or … Continue reading
Posted in governance, stocks, technology
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