Author Archives: Felix

The 2.8 Million-to-One Winning Bet

A heartwarming story of a man who bet 50p on the horses and won £1 million. Except the odds were actually 2.8 million to one, which means he should have won £1.4 million, and he’s short to the tune of … Continue reading

Posted in gambling | Comments Off on The 2.8 Million-to-One Winning Bet

Chart of the Day: US Box Office Receipts

This is the best chart I’ve seen all year, it’s a bit like the NameVoyager for movies. It has time along the x-axis and weekly box-office receipts along the y-axis, which means that box office grosses are reflected in long … Continue reading

Posted in charts | Comments Off on Chart of the Day: US Box Office Receipts

Manhattan Real Estate Datapoint of the Day

Josh Barbanel reports on a sale at Trump World Tower to Chinh Chu of the Blackstone Group: According to several people briefed on the deal, Mr. Chu paid an extra $5 million to buy a 1,200-square-foot outdoor space on a … Continue reading

Posted in housing | Comments Off on Manhattan Real Estate Datapoint of the Day

Extra Credit, Weekend Edition

Monolines: Breaking up is hard to do, yet Bond Insurer Plans a Split to Protect Ratings Outdated Prices Blamed in Credit Suisse Error Real Choices: Why TIPS are attractive even at low yields. But I’m not sure I like the … Continue reading

Posted in remainders | Comments Off on Extra Credit, Weekend Edition

Credit: The Bandwidth-and-Hamsters Analogy

I’m not entirely sure what to make of Yvette Kantrow’s column today. On the one hand, I’m the only person she’s remotely nice about (I’ve "done a decent job," she says) in her review of the way the credit crunch … Continue reading

Posted in bonds and loans, Media | Comments Off on Credit: The Bandwidth-and-Hamsters Analogy

Development: The Good News

Bill Easterly, in a nutshell, says that we’ve spent $2 trillion on aid over the past 50 years and have nothing to show for it. Charles Kenny says he’s entirely wrong, in a new paper saying that if you look … Continue reading

Posted in development | Comments Off on Development: The Good News

Why All Consumer Magazines Should be Free Online

The Christopher Leinberger article in the Atlantic which I plugged at the beginning of last week is finally online. I moaned about such delays this morning, and got an email asking why exactly they’re so bad. I replied that Choire … Continue reading

Posted in Media | 1 Comment

Ethanol’s Not Green

How did I miss this, when it was published a couple of weeks ago? Almost all biofuels used today cause more greenhouse gas emissions than conventional fuels if the full emissions costs of producing these “green” fuels are taken into … Continue reading

Posted in climate change | Comments Off on Ethanol’s Not Green

Lloyds TSB: Not an Insurer

Let me be the second (after Carrick Mollenkamp) to congratulate Eric Daniels of Lloyds TSB on sidestepping the credit crunch and reporting 2007 profits up 17%. I am a bit confused however why Mr Mollenkamp chose to illustrate his blog … Continue reading

Posted in architecture, banking | Comments Off on Lloyds TSB: Not an Insurer

Counterparty Risk in CDS Auctions

Diana Henriques has a piece in today’s NYT about CDS auctions. There are opaque auctions, like one recently held for something known as "pay as you go" credit default swaps; there are also transparent aucions, held by Creditex and Markit. … Continue reading

Posted in derivatives | Comments Off on Counterparty Risk in CDS Auctions

A Plea

Can everybody please stop talking about this being "the worst housing crisis/recession since the Depression"? It’s the only housing crisis/recession since the Depression, at least if you exclude purely regional episodes. Thank you.

Posted in economics, housing | Comments Off on A Plea

Chart of the Day: Stock-Bond Divergence

This is from a Goldman Sachs research report dated yesterday. The details: We compare the investment grade CDX spread to the implied volatility of a 25 delta put of an equal weighted basket of the stocks represented in the CDX … Continue reading

Posted in bonds and loans, stocks | Comments Off on Chart of the Day: Stock-Bond Divergence

Magazines Still Don’t Get the Web

“We don’t hire editors anymore,” says Meredith publishing president Jack Griffin. “We hire content strategists.” As someone who gloried briefly as an official Content Strategist myself, I had to smile: it’s one of those titles which anybody with an iota … Continue reading

Posted in Media | Comments Off on Magazines Still Don’t Get the Web

Credit Losses: The Good News

Where are the hedge-fund losers in the credit markets? That’s what Option Armageddon is asking, via an email from a friend in the hedge-fund industry: There have been some nice fortunes made from the spread widening (Paulson, Hayman, Blue Ridge, … Continue reading

Posted in bonds and loans | Comments Off on Credit Losses: The Good News

House-Price Momentum: The Good News

John Authers looks at what drives house prices: Tim Bond of Barclays Capital points out that once house prices start to accelerate, people expect them to keep on rising at that rate. All other factors are swamped. As he says: … Continue reading

Posted in housing | Comments Off on House-Price Momentum: The Good News

When “Underwater” Isn’t the Same as Negative Equity

The NYT has one of its big 2,000-word pieces on the housing market today, this time concentrating on the phenomenon of negative equity. The estimate the article cites is very high, and was greeted with some skepticism by Calculated Risk: … Continue reading

Posted in housing | Comments Off on When “Underwater” Isn’t the Same as Negative Equity

Extra Credit, Friday Edition

Pimco to run World Bank fund for bonds: Developing local markets and making money at the same time. Is there useful work in economics? Dani Rodrik thinks so. Peace through Superior Football: A proposal that Israel and Palestine should jointly … Continue reading

Posted in remainders | Comments Off on Extra Credit, Friday Edition

Michelle Leder is a National Treasure

Roberta Yafie explains today how US bankruptcy judge Robert Drain slashed an $87 million bonus plan for Delphi executives to "just" $16.5 million. But don’t think they haven’t hidden all manner of other egregious overpayments in their 10-K: CEO Rodney … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | Comments Off on Michelle Leder is a National Treasure

Crowds: Stupid

Paul Kedrosky said this morning that he was thinking about "the anti-wisdom of crowds". I wasn’t sure what he meant, until this afternoon: The sort of things people want government to do to help the U.S. economy — cut imports! … Continue reading

Posted in economics | Comments Off on Crowds: Stupid

Carbon Tax Arrives in British Columbia

Many congratulations to British Columbia and its finance minister Carole Taylor, who has introduced a revenue-neutral carbon tax. The sums involved are not insignificant: The carbon tax will start at a rate based on $10 per tonne of carbon emissions … Continue reading

Posted in climate change | Comments Off on Carbon Tax Arrives in British Columbia

Zimbabwe Datapoint of the Day

Brian Latham reports: The currency slumped to 20 million per dollar, from 6 million yesterday, traders including John Tonganyika said in interviews today from the capital, Harare. It’s the biggest drop since Zimbabwe gained independence from Britain in 1980, said … Continue reading

Posted in foreign exchange | Comments Off on Zimbabwe Datapoint of the Day

Chart of the Day: Oil and Gasoline Prices

Are you ready for a 40% hike in gasoline prices? According to Barbara Kiviat, if the red line converges up to where the black line is now, that would put gas prices at about $4.23 a gallon, or 40% higher … Continue reading

Posted in commodities | Comments Off on Chart of the Day: Oil and Gasoline Prices

TIPS: Great, or Terrible?

Min Zeng, on page C2 of today’s WSJ: With oil prices above $100 a barrel and countries from China to the U.S. reporting sharp gains in consumer prices, now may be the time to buy inflation-protected securities. Big bond investors, … Continue reading

Posted in bonds and loans | Comments Off on TIPS: Great, or Terrible?

How to Help Both Homeowners and Lenders, at No Public Cost

I really like this idea from the Office of Thrift Supervision: it looks like it can reduce foreclosures and help provide liquidity to struggling mortgage lenders at the same time. Here’s how it works: take a borrower who’s underwater, with … Continue reading

Posted in housing | Comments Off on How to Help Both Homeowners and Lenders, at No Public Cost

Monolines: Ackman’s Latest Plan

Has anybody not seen Bill Ackman’s latest plan for what should happen to the monolines? It’s been doing the email rounds for a couple of days now, but finally it’s hit the web: if you want to download the full … Continue reading

Posted in insurance | Comments Off on Monolines: Ackman’s Latest Plan