Second-Guessing the Fed, Already

The lead article in the print version of the WSJ this morning is headlined

"Fresh

Credit Worries Grip Markets". Naturally, it leads with the Fed angle:

The angst in the financial markets stood in contrast to the views Federal

Reserve officials expressed Wednesday. They said their latest rate cut, combined

with a more aggressive one in September, should help forestall damage to the

broad economy from credit-market turmoil. But the latest market developments

raised investor expectations the Fed may ease again.

The lead article on the WSJ website this morning is about the

October payrolls report. Naturally, it leads with the Fed angle:

U.S. employment soared at its fastest pace in five months in October led

by strong gains in services, easing concerns about the state of the economy

and suggesting further Federal Reserve rate cuts are highly unlikely in the

near term.

Can we get a grip, people? The last FOMC meeting finished on Wednesday.

It’s now Friday. The next FOMC meeting doesn’t come until December 11, which

is 26 trading days away. One day of gyration in the stock market does not a

rate cut make, and I’m sure the Fed had some indication on Wednesday of what

would be in this morning’s report. We have six more weeks of data to go before

the next Fed decision; let’s not get ahead of ourselves here. The Fed statement

on Wednesday made it pretty clear that another rate cut was unlikely; that should

remain the base case for at least a couple of weeks.

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