According to the most recent trades on InTrade,
the chance of Al Gore running for president is 11%, the chance of his receiving
the Democratic nomination is 6.4%, and the chance of his winning the presidency
Which means that InTrade’s traders reckon Gore has a 58% chance of getting
the nomination if he runs, and an 89% chance of winning the presidency if he’s
nominated, and an all-over probability of 52% that he’ll become president if
he throws his hat in the ring.
Meanwhile, the favorite for president, Hillary Clinton, has already
thrown her hat in the ring, and is given a 48% chance of becoming president.
(Giuliani’s in a distant second place, on 17.6%.) Which means, I think, that
Al Gore is considered to be the best presidential candidate in America, on a
pure electability criterion.
That said, there is probably some selection bias going on here. Gore won’t
throw his hat in the ring so long as Clinton is looking as invincible as she
looks right now – something very nasty would have to happen to her campaign
first. So Gore’s 52% is contingent on Hillary weakness, while Clinton’s 48%
prices in the possibility of future Hillary weakness.
Still, it’s interesting to see how popular Gore is considered to be, compared
especially to the other front-runners such as Giuliani, Romney (8.1%), and Obama
(6.6%). Basically, the markets are saying that Gore would obliterate any of
them, were he to run.