InTrade Plays of the Day

Tyler Cowen recommends shorting


Friday I heard Fred Thompson talk for three minutes, he was so terrible I

had to leave the room….

Most of all he has rotten diction (odd for a former actor), plus he had no

idea what the market-oriented crowd wanted to hear. Sell short.

Thompson’s still trading at a respectable 20.1 to get the Republican nomination,

so you can make some decent money with a short.

Also worth a short from the Republican side: Ron Paul, who’s traded up to 6.0,

near his all-time high. Yes, he does have a fervent following. But ain’t no

way he’s getting the nomination.

Similarly, on the Democratic side, Al Gore is trading at 12.1. I suspect he’d

be trading lower than that if he actually declared, so there’s little downside

risk to shorting him.

You can also short Gore at 48 (48!) to win the Nobel Peace Prize.

No one is ever that much of a lock-in to win this highly unpredictable

award in any given year.

On the other hand, Obama is a screaming buy at 13.4. I’m not saying he’s going

to get the nomination, but he does have a greater than 13.4% chance of getting

it. Buy here, and sell when he does well in one of the early caucuses, for an

easy locked-in profit.

Unfortunately, the trading in the Nobel Economics prize seems to be completely

illiquid, so no trading recommendations there, although if you can short anybody

above 20, do so.

Finally, the 2008 US recession contract is trading at 49, and might be worth

a short. Even notorious bear Alan Greenspan doesn’t

think it that likely.

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