The End of Harry Potter

The market is pricing

in Harry Potter’s death. I have only the vaguest knowledge of the Harry

Potter books, but I do have a certain amount of faith in markets. Therefore,

I believe that Harry Potter will indeed be killed off in the final book of the


I’m not quite sure if my belief is justified or not. While it’s possible that

the bookies were receiving bets from people with inside information, I think

it’s more likely that most of the bets were simply from fans of the series,

who can only guess whether or not Harry will die. Can the sum total of ignorance

be reasonably reliable? Yes, I think. But we will find out for sure on July

21, should we be so inclined.

(Via Cowen)

This entry was posted in Media. Bookmark the permalink.