Wolfowitz, Rogoff, and Intrade

Over at Intrade,

the Wolfowitz.Resign.Apr07 contract has expired at 0, after trading as high

as 43 on April 24. (Which means that the people betting at Intrade reckoned

there was a 43% chance of Paul Wolfowitz resigning last month.)

Meanwhile, the June, September, and December contracts are alll trading at about

60, albeit with very little liquidity.

The problem, of course, is finding someone willing to go short, and bet that

Wolfie will still have his job in a few months’ time. As far as I can tell,

the board is pretty adamant that he has to go, and the only question is how.

Even Wolfowitz seems to be coming round to the realization that you can’t be

a leader if you don’t have any followers.

In any case, you have to read Ken Rogoff’s spoof

memo over at Foreign Policy. When someone of Rogoff’s stature can laugh

in Wolfowitz’s face like this, you know it’s all over.

(Via Bayesian


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