Don’t Invest in Hollywood

Equity

Private, like many of us, is a huge fan of Vipal Monga

– financial journalist, filmmaker, and all-around good guy. Better yet,

she has a subscription to Monga’s home, the Daily Deal, which means she can

quote some of his pull-no-punches journalism, this time on the subject of funds

which invest in Hollywood movies:

The separation of investors from their investments is a hallowed Hollywood

tradition…

Hollywood’s structured financings may be the worst way ever to invest in the

film industry. This is especially true for equity investors, located at the

bottom of a movie slate’s so-called waterfall…

What’s being whispered in Hollywood corridors today will then resonate all

the way to Wall Street. "My understanding from people who invested in

the equity is that they are totally wiped out," says the expert on studio

economics.

(Full disclosure: I worked with Monga at Bridge News, way back in the 20th

Century, which is one reason I’m giving him all the props here rather than his

co-author, Richard Morgan.)

Only a fool, I think, would invest in the expectation of making a profit either

in films or in art. Both Hollywood and the art world are essentially cartels,

which are very good at extracting money from rich people while tantalizingly

promising them jam tomorrow – and lots of glamor today.

Buying art can make sense all the same, if you love it. But it’s a good idea

to let someone else produce the movies you love. For $11 you can get all the

benefit, and leave the costs and the headaches to starry-eyed fools.

Posted in Media | Comments Off on Don’t Invest in Hollywood

Ford’s Emotional Breakup With Jaguar

There’s so much to love in John

Reed’s story about Ford selling Land Rover and Jaguar: it’s full of juicy

goodness. But the very best bit comes at the end:

Ford, which lined up a $23bn financing package to see it through its restructuring

late last year, has repeatedly denied immediate plans to sell the two brands.

When Aston Martin was sold in March Lewis Booth, PAG’s head, said: "Jaguar

and Land Rover are not for sale."

This is simply embarrassing. You don’t say in March that the brands are not

for sale, only to start shopping them around in June. What this means is that

Ford lacks strategic vision, and that it is still casting around desperately

for ideas.

A few other tidbits:

Ford Motor has given Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and HSBC a mandate to

sell Jaguar and Land Rover.

It takes three investment banks to sell these marques? I think the

story here is that Ford has borrowed so much cash from these banks that it feels

beholden to them and has to give them any M&A mandates that may or may not

come along.

A spokeswoman for Alchemy Partners denied a newspaper report that the private

equity group was lining up a £3bn bid to buy the brands. Alchemy had been

interested in Jaguar and Land Rover, she said, "but only at the emotional

level".

It’s worth noting that £3 billion is $5.9 billion: in other words, these

two small, money-losing brands are worth almost as much as Chrysler. They might

not have Chrysler’s built-in healthcare liabilities, but they do have widening

losses, and Jaguar in particular seems to be something of a money pit. On the

other hand, there’s no guarantee that Ford will be able to get anywhere near

£3 billion. But if there’s lots of interest "at the emotional level,"

then maybe it will be able to get lots of hugs and kisses instead.

Posted in M&A | Comments Off on Ford’s Emotional Breakup With Jaguar

The Blackstone IPO, Net Worth Edition

How did Steve Schwarzman end up with so much more of Blackstone

Group than Pete Peterson? Their take-home pay last year was

not so far apart: Schwarzman earned $398 million, while Peterson earned $213

million. But in the upcoming

IPO, Peterson is going to extract $1.88 billion and keep 4% of the company.

Add the two together at $30 per share and you have a total of $3.18 billion.

A hefty sum, to be sure. But look at Schwarzman: his 24% stake in the company

is going to be worth about $8.3 billion on its own – and that doesn’t

even include the $449 million he’s extracting from the IPO, or any of the cash

he’s received over the years from the company.

At these levels, of course, money is just a way of keeping score: the marginal

effect of getting an extra dollar has long since declined to zero. And Peterson

has already said that he’s going to be giving

away a large chunk of the money in any event. But it’s interesting all the

same to see that Schwarzman’s net worth is triple that of Peterson.

It’s also worth noting some of the other Blackstone gazillionaires, post-IPO:

COO Tony James will become an overnight billionaire, while

vice chairman Tomilson Hill will have shares worth well over

$500 million.

It’s hard to see how the founders of other private-equity shops will be able

to resist the lure of these kind of riches. And it’s also easy to see how it’s

private equity companies, rather than investment banks or management consultants,

which have the pick of each year’s MBAs.

Posted in private equity | Comments Off on The Blackstone IPO, Net Worth Edition

Lies and GDP Statistics

BusinessWeek’s Michael Mandel has been hinting for weeks at

a huge story he’s been working on, and it’s

finally arrived. What’s the scoop? Well, it seems that Mandel has a beef

with US statistical methodology. And the upshot is that GDP has been overstated

– we don’t know by how much – due to the US importing various goods

that it didn’t import in the past.

Mandel’s a very good journalist, but even he can’t make this story exciting.

What’s more, he weirdly saves his best

explanation of the effect he’s talking about for his blog, rather than including

it in the story.

My take on all this is that official government statistics, of any country,

should never be considered the last word on how any given economy is doing.

They’re the best that we’ve got, and economists generally have a pretty good

handle on just how good they are. But as Alan Greenspan knew

full well, they don’t tell you everything. That’s why he would spend hours poring

over all manner of obscure manufacturing statistics in order to get a more nuanced

and detailed idea of how the US economy was doing.

When Republicans say that the economy is doing great, and pull out carefully-chosen

statistics to back up their claims, Democrats generally cry foul and point to

other statistics to show how the economy isn’t doing nearly as well as the Republicans

say. A similar thing happens, in reverse, during Democratic administrations.

But perhaps it’s the populists who have it right: never mind the statistics,

they say, we know what reality is by looking at what’s going on in our constituencies

and using our own two eyes.

The own-two-eyes school of economics has many weaknesses, of course: it tends

to overstate the effect of layoffs, and understate the impact of new jobs in

the economy. (People remember being laid off from the local factory much more

vividly than they remember the nail salon opening on their street.) But statisticians

don’t have a stranglehold on the truth.

Posted in statistics | Comments Off on Lies and GDP Statistics

Goldman in Moscow

Goldman Sachs is a formidable force wherever in the world it operates. So it’s

likely to do well in Moscow, where it’s now announced

plans to add another 25 bankers, at somewhere north of $5m per annum apiece.

Goldman, famously, last made a concerted push into Russia just weeks before

the government defaulted on its domestic debt, caused massive losses across

the worldwide financial system, and precipitated the disastrous meltdown of

Long Term Capital Management. But I don’t think anybody’s worried about that

happening again this time round. Rather, the worries are more on the ethical

side:

Goldman was slower to invest in Russia than some of its rivals because of

concern that the integrity of the country’s financial markets, Chief Financial

Officer David Viniar told investors last year.

"There are a lot of things to do" in terms of getting rid of corruption

in some parts of the economy and creating legal certainty, Dibelius said.

Goldman also let Brazil’s Banco Pacutal slip out of its hands recently, when

its planned $2 billion joint venture with the local investment house was scuppered

by similar ethical concerns. In the case of the Brazilians the problem wasn’t

corruption, so much as a refusal to buy into US notions about Chinese Walls

and the like: Pactual is both a formidable trading shop and also a major fund

manager, and doesn’t believe that information can’t travel between the two sides.

In the end, Pactual was bought outright by UBS, which means that UBS can implement

whatever kind of Chinese walls it likes. Goldman was always in a weaker position,

because it only ever wanted a joint venture, rather than an outright acquisition.

It makes sense that Goldman is looking to expand organically in Russia, rather

than, say, buying Russia specialist Renaissance Group – the US investment

bank is never particularly comfortable making acquisitions. But its Russia strategy

is also high risk, since the Goldman name doesn’t carry the same cachet in Russia

as it does elsewhere. It will be hard for the firm to oust the likes of Morgan

Stanley and Credit Suisse from the top slots in the Russian league tables.

Posted in banking, emerging markets | Comments Off on Goldman in Moscow

What Is Larry Summers Wearing?

tweedledeeDavid

Leonhardt had an interesting profile of Larry Summers in

the NYT yesterday. Leonhardt reckons that Summers could (and probably should)

become a Democratic Henry Kissinger, intimately involved in policy decisions

despite not having an official government job.

Leonhardt also notes that Summers now has a "lucrative" part-time

job at hedge fund DE Shaw – and given that John Edwards made half a million

bucks at Fortress Group just for a consulting gig, you can be sure that Summers’s

remuneration at DE Shaw is well into the seven figures.

So why, in that case, does Summers, in the accompanying photograph (left, by

Nigel Parry), seem to be wearing the world’s most ill-fitting suit? I can think

of five possible explanations:

  • Summers refuses to admit to himself that he’s gained weight, and therefore

    still buys suits in his old size.

  • Summers likes to present himself as a classic rumpled forgetful professor,

    and therefore deliberately buys suits which don’t fit.

  • Summers really is a classic rumpled forgetful professor, and showed

    up to the NYT photoshoot wearing an old, ill-fitting suit.

  • Nigel Parry, the photographer, or his stylist, wanted to present Summers

    as a classic rumpled forgetful professor, and therefore put him in an ill-fitting

    suit.

  • Nigel Parry, the photographer, or his stylist, made a mistake, and somehow

    ended up putting Summers into an ill-fitting suit, but hey, it made for a

    great photo, because everybody likes to see their former Treasury secretaries

    looking like Tweedledee occasionally.

Anybody got any better ideas?

Posted in technocrats | Comments Off on What Is Larry Summers Wearing?

How to Make Money From Undrilled Oil

There’s carbon taxes. There’s cap-and-trade. But Ecuador’s Minister of

Energy and Mines, Alberto Acosta, has an even better idea for reducing carbon

emissions: don’t even develop the oil fields in the first place! The AP’s Gonzalo

Solano explains

the idea:

President Rafael Correa said Ecuador is seeking some $350 million annually

for 10 years to not drill for oil in Ishpingo-Tiputini-Tambococha (ITT) fields,

located in the Yasuni National Park deep in Ecuador’s northeastern jungle.

The jungle area, which holds close to 1 billion barrels of crude, is a UNESCO

Biosphere Reserve known for its rich variety of flora and fauna. Some environmentalists

say there is more plant life in the reserve – about the size of Puerto Rico

– than in the United States and Canada combined.

Mark

Turner has more details:

By leaving the crude underground and untouched, planet Earth will be spared

around 108 million tonnes per year of atmospheric carbon dioxide pollution

as well as the $4bn it would need to clean up the site once all oil were exhausted.

It would protect the Amazon basin rainforest where ITT lies, stop any localised

emissions from interfering with ecosystems and weather patterns and also go

a long way to help protect the local indigenous communities, particularly

three tribes of local peoples that have chosen not to have any contact with

the outside world if at all possible.

The developed world has one year to make this happen. $350 million per year

is really not all that much – I can think of a few hedge fund managers

who pay that in income tax. Who’s going to take the lead and pledge some cash?

Posted in climate change | Comments Off on How to Make Money From Undrilled Oil

Inappropriate Behavior on Cable TV

Have you ever wanted to encapsulate everything which is meretricious, deplorable,

and downright odious about financial TV in one five-word phrase? For most of

us, "Mad Money with Jim Cramer" does the trick perfectly well. But

you – you can do better. Ladies and gentlemen, I proudly present the winning

phrase: "CNBC Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge".

The Challenge was an ill-advised stunt from the very start. It treats stock-market

investing as a game where he who takes the most ridiculous risks wins. It encourages

individuals to try to beat not only the market, but everybody else: a 2,000%

return doesn’t even get you to the finals if enough other people manage to get

a 2,200% return. And contestants are aiming for the kind of returns on a daily

basis that most sensible investors would be happy with on an annual basis. In

a nutshell, it turns the serious business of investing into a hype-drenched

horse race seemingly designed to glorify the most destructive and idiotic behavior

possible.

So, it’s good that BusinessWeek is taking

the Challenge down a few notches. But it’s depressing that Tim Catts concentrates

in his story on a very narrow reading of what is and what is not acceptable

with such games. He never once takes issue with the basic idea of the Challenge,

or how it works. And when one of the contestants admits to Catts that he was

gaming the system from the very start, Catts is quite unfazed:

When Kraber heard about CNBC’s million-dollar challenge earlier this year,

he knew he wanted to enter. But it wasn’t until he read the rules of the game

that he figured he had a pretty good shot at making the finals. The key was

that CNBC put no limit on the number of portfolios a player could manage,

and only the best-performing one would count. So Kraber, with his expertise

in statistics, computer-programming, and stock selection, could set up hundreds

of different portfolios, all pursuing high-risk, high-return strategies. By

sheer chance, at least one of his portfolios would do well, and he figured

that with smart strategic picks he’d rank near the top of all the participants.

"I realized I had an almost 100% chance of making the finals," he

says.

In the end, Kraber ended up putting together no fewer than 1,600 different

stock portfolios, just to make perfectly sure that one of them ended up doing

really well. Did he violate the rules?

Well, they do say:

CNBC reserves the right to terminate Contest participation by any Participants

suspected of cheating, attempting to exploit the contest or other inappropriate

behavior. All such action will be determined by CNBC in its sole discretion.

It seems to me that Kraber, quite clearly, was "attempting to exploit

the contest". Yet Kraber, according to the BusinessWeek story, is the good

guy! He complains that other contestants engaged in even more egregious behavior.

By fiddling around with queues in browser windows after the market closed, says

Kraber, they effectively managed to buy stocks in the knowledge that their earnings

releases would beat market expectations and result in a large boost to their

share price the following day.

If the allegations are true, then those contestants should probably be disqualified

for inappropriate behavior. Kraber doesn’t need to be disqualified, since he

only managed to come in in 12th place anyway – but if he were a serious

contender, then I’d be minded to disqualify him, too. But then again, I’d be

minded to disqualify the entire Million Dollar Portfolio Challenge as the epitome

of inappropriate behavior on the part of a cable TV channel.

And the scary thing is that Rupert Murdoch’s new business channel hasn’t even

launched yet. I fear to think what kind of stunts the Fox masterminds are going

to come up with to boost ratings.

Posted in Media | 5 Comments

Noise in the Markets, Treasury Sell-Off Edition

I’ve been a little bit out of the market loop for the past few days, thereby

becoming more like Nassim Nicholas Taleb, who famously doesn’t read newspapers.

(The time he saves that way, he says, lets him read dozens of extra books every

year.) On the other hand, given the name of this blog, I really ought to be

on top of what’s going on in the market. And so this morning I found myself

scrolling through 24 hours’ worth of posts on David Gaffen’s invaluable Marketbeat

blog at the WSJ.

Here’s what I found on the subject of the sell-off in bond prices:

June

7, 12:48pm: "The Federal Reserve isn’t getting bothered about

inflation."

June

7, 2:18pm: There’s a "rout" in the bond market.

June

7, 3:48pm: "When Bonds Become Attractive".

June

7, 4:18pm: "There is a bearish tone in the Treasury market right now,"

and long positions in Treasurys are being unwound.

June

7, 4:37pm: The all-powerful Bill Gross, of Pimco, thinks the 10-year yield

could reach 6.5% in the next five years, much higher than the 5.5% he pictured.

June

8, 9:48am: "Mortgage investors are likely responsible for the sharp

decline in bond prices".

June

8, 10:18am: There’s a "sudden outbreak of inflation worries".

June

8, 11:49am: The sell-off might have been due to a rate hike in New Zealand.

Or, not so much.

June

8, 12:19pm: There’s a bond sell-off, but there isn’t any inflation.

Now this is not in any way a criticism of David Gaffen or his excellent blog.

Gaffen is merely a mirror being held up to the market: this is exactly the way

the market thinks. It changes its mind multiple times every day, it has a curious

mixture of insecurity and arrogance, and what goes around tends to come around.

But for anybody who doesn’t need, for professional purposes, to follow the

intraday noise of the markets, I can’t quite see how any of this information

is of any real use. Trying to extract a signal from all the noise has become,

to all intents and purposes, impossible.

Posted in bonds and loans | Comments Off on Noise in the Markets, Treasury Sell-Off Edition

How to Deal With Rising Healthcare Costs

Russ

Mitchell weighs in on the subject of healthcare today, and specifically

the problem that healthcare technology is driving prices up so far and so fast

that at present rates it won’t be all that long until there’s any money left

over for anything else. Mitchell’s solution comes from James Robinson,

a corporate health policy expert at the University of California-Berkeley, and

is, in a nutshell, better healthcare for the rich.

What we need, he says, is a real menu of health care packages, so people

can choose from a variety of programs matching their needs with their ability

to pay, from basic Mazda to luxury Mercedes. Employees (and the government,

for the uninsured) can decide what packages they’ll provide for how much.

By coincidence, I’m in Berkeley myself right now, and took the opportunity

to have coffee yesterday with Lance Knobel

and Brad DeLong. This very question

came up: Brad painted a picture of people having spare eyeballs and kidneys

stored in perpetuity in a hospital basement somewhere, which could be used to

replace the existing ones if they failed for whatever reason.

Brad, of course, knows a lot about the healthcare problem, having been intimately

involved in the original Clinton plan from the early days of the Clinton administration.

And he knows how intractable these sorts of problems can be. His solution is

similar to Robinson’s, but tries to make quality healthcare available to everybody,

and not just to the rich. How does he do that?

I’m sure I’ll get the details wrong, but in a nutshell, Brad would like to

see a health insurance plan or plans in which the deductible is very large:

20% of any individual’s pre-tax income in the previous year. Insurance would

have to be insurance, against catastrophically large medical expenses,

as opposed to the present situation, where consumers have no real skin in the

game and therefore no incentive to try to drive down prices.

Where consumers do pay their own money, Brad notes, as with laser

eye surgery, prices have a tendency to come down quite impressively.

Brad’s system isn’t perfect, of course. The cost of very expensive procedures

would probably not come down much, since people would be losing their entire

deductible anyway. It would be hard to ban supplementary insurance products

which protected people against the risk of losing their entire deductible. And

many people might end up not getting necessary healthcare because they didn’t

want to pay for it.

But it’s still a very interesting idea which tries to seriously tackle the

problem of health-cost inflation – an area where the present health plans

from Democratic presidential candidates are quite weak.

Update: Brad elaborates.

Posted in healthcare | Comments Off on How to Deal With Rising Healthcare Costs

Jeff Sachs’s Reality Distortion Field

I’m beginning to think that Steve Jobs’s famous Reality

Distortion Field has a rival: that of Jeffrey Sachs.

Nina Munk profiles

Sachs in the latest Vanity Fair:

If you spend enough time with Sachs, as I have, you may come around to his

point of view: if the history of international development is a history of

failure, it is because too many people in the field are complacent, or incompetent,

or not accountable.

Sachs certainly has little time for his critics:

Another standard argument against increasing foreign aid goes like this:

we’ve spent billions already, and so far we’ve had almost no return on our

investment.

Responding to this defeatist line of thinking, Sachs argues that foreign aid

has failed to produce obvious results because we have spent too little. In

his favorite analogy he compares the current situation in Africa to a forest

fire: if you try to put out the fire with one hose, and the fire continues

to rage, do you conclude that fighting fires is hopeless? From Sachs’s point

of view, the only logical conclusion is: you don’t have enough firefighters.

Sachs’s modus operandi is very much to keep his eyes on what he’s

trying to achieve, and not get bogged down in debates with his critics. (Britain’s

Hilary Benn is a good example of someone who seems much more willing

to engage in the is-aid-effective debate.) Sachs is very good at taking his

Reality Distortion Field and applying it to philanthropists, to presidents,

to anybody who can help increase aid assistance in general and the money flowing

to his Millenium Village Project in particular. It’s surely a good use of Sachs’s

time.

But, as Tyler

Cowen says, Sachs isn’t scalable – and it’s far from clear that the

Millenium Village Project is scalable either – or even a particularly

efficient use of funds. It can create unhealthy dependencies, as well as uncomfortable

and even violent power struggles; Munk hints at this, but a much more detailed

and forensic examination of one project is provided by Sam

Rich, in the Wilson Quarterly. Rich spent much less time with Sachs than

Munk did, and spent much more time with poor villagers than Munk did –

and that seems to have made a lot of difference.

My view on Sachs is that he’s indubitably a force for good in the world. Munk

doesn’t even get to the many other projects he has going at Columbia’s Earth

Institute, which is mentioned once in the opening paragraph and then never mentioned

again. On global warming issues alone the Earth Institute is a magnificent place,

and Sachs’s interdisciplinary dreams are most inspiring things.

On the other hand, on the more narrow (but still very large) issue of development

aid for Africa, I do think that Sachs’s ego and seeming inability to defer to

real experts in the development field is a problem. He’s very good at raising

money. But is he the best person to spend it?

Posted in development | Comments Off on Jeff Sachs’s Reality Distortion Field

Detroit Shoots Itself in the Foot on Fuel Efficiency

One of the things which is sure to strike any American visitor to Japan is

the cars on the streets. They’re not what most Americans think of as Japanese

cars: Accords, Camrys, Lexuses, that sort of thing. Rather, they look like no

cars in America. They are much smaller than the vast majority of US cars, they’re

much more fuel-efficient, and there seems to be no premium put on power, size,

and other gas-guzzling features. On the other hand, there is a huge premium

put on cars being new: you almost never see an old car in Japan.

Detroit knows this: its comparitive advantage, insofar as there is one, is

in making fuel-inefficient vehicles like the Hummer. And so it’s railing

against proposed laws which would increase US fuel efficiency.

The problem is that Detroit is, slowly, dying. If it wants its cars to continue

to sell around the world, it will have to make them more fuel-efficient no matter

what the US legislates. And if it doesn’t improve fuel efficiency, it will continue

to lose market share to foreign competitors who know how to make great cars

which don’t guzzle gas.

So rather than complain about fuel-efficiency standards which wouldn’t even

come into force until 2020, it would be much better were Detroit to embrace

them. Without such standards, any given Big Three company can get a short-term

profit boost by making automobiles which guzzle insane amounts of gas. (See:

the Hummer.) So there’s not much incentive for the other two to miss out on

those profits by moving towards the side of the angels.

With tougher standards, on the other hand, the Big Three will no longer need

to worry about being out-competed on the gas-guzzling side of things, and they

can invest more money in more earth-friendly cars. They should be lobbying for

this bill, not against it.

Posted in climate change | Comments Off on Detroit Shoots Itself in the Foot on Fuel Efficiency

How Derivatives Traders Can Also Be Heroes

What’s the opposite of a vulture? Vulture funds, in popular imagination (if

not in reality), buy up

debt on the cheap and then profit from the distress of others by trying to maximise

the amount of money they can extract from their debtors. But what would you

call someone who buys up debt on the cheap and then tries to profit by helping

out the debtors as much as possible? If you’re a normal person, you might call

such a trader a hero. If you’re hedge-fund manager John Paulson of

Paulson & Co, however, you accuse

people of market manipulation.

The problem seems to be that Bear Stearns has sold credit protection on subprime-backed

securities to Paulson. If Bear does nothing, it has to pay out on its insurance

contract. But if it buys up the underlying mortgages and restructures them so

that the homeowners don’t end up defaulting, then Paulson gets nothing.

That’s a great trade. Good for Bear. Paulson just got out-traded, is all.

Posted in derivatives, housing | Comments Off on How Derivatives Traders Can Also Be Heroes

The NAR Turns Bearish on Housing

With David Lereah gone,

it seems that the National Association of Realtors is becoming more bearish

in its forecasts

(if not its spin).

Joe Weisenthal

thinks that the NAR’s capitulation to reality is likely a bullish indicator,

but I’m not quite that sanguine: I think it’s more a desperate attempt to reclaim

some modicum of credibility, although the likes of Dean

Baker will never trust the NAR, no matter what they say.

Personally, I don’t believe any forecasts at all, whether they’re bullish or

bearish. Niether the NAR nor anybody else has any privileged information about

what house prices are going to do over the next year or two – all of this

is no more than glorified guesswork, and should really be treated as such.

Posted in housing | Comments Off on The NAR Turns Bearish on Housing

Supply and Demand in the Cocaine Industry

The Wall Street Journal’s Informed Reader has picked

up an interesting article on cocaine in the Atlantic (behind a subscription

firewall here).

Apparently the street price of a gram of cocaine is now down to $20, down from

$200 in the late 1990s and $600 in the early 1980s. And yet, despite some of

the steepest price drops the world has ever seen, demand for the drug is no

better than steady.

There are two supply-and-demand questions here. The first is the one posed

by the Atlantic’s Ken Dermota: if supply is falling and demand

is steady, how can the price of cocaine be falling? But the second one is also

interesting: if the price is falling so dramatically, how come demand isn’t

going through the roof?

Ex post, I’m sure it’s possible to come up with some story about how

people just aren’t that into cocaine any more, or they’re more conscious of

the dangers of cocaine addiction, or things along those lines. And I’m sure

that there are interesting stories to be told about the rise and fall of the

crack epidemic, as well. But the price of cocaine seems to have been falling

quite steadily and quite regardless of the level of demand from crack addicts,

and the other factors don’t on their face seem strong enough to repeal basic

laws of economics.

There’s a large faction of economists who love to say that raising the minimum

wage must also raise unemployment, because of the way that supply and demand

curves work. I wonder what they would have to say about the cocaine situation.

Posted in economics | Comments Off on Supply and Demand in the Cocaine Industry

Paper of the Day: Levy and Temin on Income Inequality

Robert

Samuelson devoted his column yesterday to a very interesting new paper from

Frank Levy and Peter Temin of MIT. For those

of us who prefer to read original papers rather than the journalism based on

them, the paper can be found here.

The basic idea behind the paper is that between World War II and 1980 or so,

a set of institutions led by strong labor unions helped to ensure that workers’

income kept up with productivity gains. Since then, however, capital has gained

the upper hand over labor. What’s more, all of these developments were encouraged

by government policy:

The early postwar years were dominated by unions, a negotiating framework

set in the Treaty of Detroit, progressive taxes, and a high minimum

wage – all parts of a general government effort to broadly distribute the

gains from growth. More recent years have been characterized by reversals

in all these dimensions in an institutional pattern known as the Washington

Consensus.

The authors convincingly show a steady decline in workers’ bargaining power

over the past 50 years, as calculated by the proportion of their productivity

gains which end up in their paychecks.

Mark

Thoma has a nice response to Samuelson on the question of whether this rise

in inequality is a good thing or has helped the US economy. As for me, I’m also

interested in the term which the authors use to describe the state of affairs

from the Reagan years onwards: the Washington

Consensus.

This is a term coined by John Williamson in the late 1980s,

designed to apply not to the US but rather to policy prescriptions for developing

countries. It’s been distorted wildly since then, to the point at which Williamson,

who has reasonably solid leftist credentials (at least by US standards), has

more or less disowned

it. In any case, however, there is very little in the Washington Consensus

about labor unions being a bad thing, and there’s no hint that productivity

gains should accrue to capital more than labor. (Quite the opposite, in fact,

since the purpose of the Washington Consensus was to help the world’s poor.)

All the same, Levy and Temin pose an interesting question for Democratic presidential

candidates. If you want to reduce inequality, what are you going to do about

it? To be sure, you could start taxing the rich more. But are there more directly

pro-worker things you could do as well – things which would place you

solidly in the legacy of JFK? And can those things really work in an era of

globalization?

Posted in economics, labor | Comments Off on Paper of the Day: Levy and Temin on Income Inequality

Wednesday links

Greetings from Berkeley, California – I’ve been travelling all day, and

didn’t have nearly enough coffee at 6:45am to put up even a cursory linkblog.

So apologies if you came here in search of something new and found nothing.

To keep you tided over for the time being, then, here’s a few belated links.

If hostile bank takeovers are better than friendly bank takeovers, as Sir

Fred Goodwin seems

to think, why are there so

few of them?

David

Neubert thinks, contra James Cramer, that Citigroup

should not be broken up. In Boston, the bank’s even trying to find

internal synergies!

Vivien

Jennings, the president of Rainy Day Books in Fairway, Kansas, thinks it’s

Just Not Fair that authors link to their own Amazon.com pages from their own

home pages. Because then people might buy those books from Amazon.com, and not

from Rainy Day Books in Fairway, Kansas.

Floyd

Norris and John

Carney look into the Dow Jones bylaws and come to the conclusion that a

minority of Bancrofts could block a sale to Rupert Murdoch,

should they be so inclined. Which is not to say that Ron Burkle

is going to be the next owner of the Wall Street Journal, or anything as outlandish

as that. This is all still very much in the realm of theory.

The Wall Street Journal runs a big front-page

story on the link between globalization and inflation. Larry

Ball is not quoted.

And finally: Synthetic

mortgage-backed securities!

Back to more regular blogging tomorrow, I hope.

Posted in remainders | Comments Off on Wednesday links

Where I blog

I’ve found out of late that not everybody reads my website through RSS, and there are actually people who don’t know that the reason I’m barely blogging here is that I’m blogging as much as ten times per day over at marketmovers.org. So check me out over there!

Posted in Econoblog | 1 Comment

Complaining About the Immigration Points System

The immigration debate sure does throw together some strange

bedfellows. Today, George

Borjas and Robert

Reich both express misgivings with the points-based system which will be

used to screen potential immigrants.

Borjas simply notes that he himself gets only 66 points on the Canadian points

system, which is just below the passing grade of 67. (On the other hand, all

he’d need would be a job offer from any old Canadian university, which I’m sure

wouldn’t be too hard to line up, and he’d pass easily.) For what it’s worth,

even without a job or an advanced degree, I managed to rack up 73 points: it

helps a lot to be under the age of 50, and to have some basic

proficiency in French.

Reich, meanwhile, is worried about America’s poor underpaid computer engineers:

Supporters of this fundamental change in immigration policy say we need to

import well-educated talent if we’re to stay competitive.

But exactly whose competitiveness are we talking about? Not the competitiveness

of, say, American-born computer engineers. Adjusted for inflation, their earnings

haven’t gone anywhere in years. That’s in part because American

companies have been sending so much of their high-tech work abroad. Bringing

more foreign-born engineers here – under an expanded H1-B visa program

or a point system, for that matter – will just depress wages even further.

Maybe someone could remind Mr Reich that there was a whopping great bursting

of a technology bubble a few years ago, which probably explains much more about

computer engineers’ earnings than any amount of outsourcing or immigration.

After all, I don’t recall anybody talking about "depressed wages"

in the sector in 1999.

In any case, I’m not convinced that importing computer engineers really cuts

their wages. Dean

Baker would have you believe that it does, but then I think of all the immigrant

computer engineers who started up high-wage companies like Intel, Sun, and Google,

and I think that maybe on aggregate immigrants have done more to raise technology

wages than they have to lower them.

Posted in immigration | Comments Off on Complaining About the Immigration Points System

Whole Foods – Wild Oats: Has the FTC Been at the Nutmeg?

You know when you’re asleep, and you dream that you’re falling, and then you

wake up all startled and confused? I think the Federal Trade Commission is a

bit like that. It’s been asleep for a long time: the last deal it blocked in

the retail space was a decade ago, when Office Depot tried to buy Staples. But

today it seems to have woken up and fired

off a salvo in a most peculiar direction: at the planned merger of Whole

Foods and Wild Oats.

Neither company is particularly enormous – they have barely 300 stores

between them – and there’s hardly been much of a public outcry about the

anticompetitive implications of the United States having one less chain of overpriced

organic grocers. Jim

Mahar has more:

First of all it is saying that Natural and Organic grocers are a different

market than other grocers. Which is clearly not the case (don’t believe me?

Price an organic item too high and see everyone go to the non organic variety!).

Secondly, with the widespread adoption of "organic" products by

national producers (see Hunts, Kraft, etc.), it is unclear whether the "natural

and organic" grocers will have the market to themselves.

Mahar doesn’t even mention the big push by Wal-Mart into the organic space,

which, one might think, might force some degree of consolidation in the rest

of the industry. And in any case, I can’t remember the last time I went into

a supermarket which didn’t offer, for a premium, organic produce. The

whole thing makes very little sense: could it be, as Dana

Cimilluca suggests, that the FTC is reacting to perceived pressure from

Congress? If so, this move could destroy quite a lot of shareholder value in

the service of massaging a few political egos.

Posted in M&A, regulation | Comments Off on Whole Foods – Wild Oats: Has the FTC Been at the Nutmeg?

Why The WSJ Is Not Necessarily A Wasting Asset

Michael

Lewis has an interesting but wrong-headed argument today, saying that Rupert

Murdoch is buying a wasting asset in the Wall Street Journal:

There’s a catch to the status of even great newspapers: When they lose their

readers they lose not just their profits but their purchase on the culture,

and the source of their prestige. It’s only a matter of time before even Murdoch

wakes up and realizes that the Wall Street Journal is not as glorious as he

remembers. And what then? He — or his heirs — will want out. They’ll sell

it, at a big loss, to some lesser figure. (Inferior status goods attract inferior

status-seekers.)

The Bancrofts won’t believe it now but there may come a time when they long

for the days when their baby was in the hands of such a fine and upstanding

press baron as Rupert Murdoch.

I can assure Michael Lewis that Rupert Murdoch has no intention whatsoever

of waking up one morning to discover that the Wall Street Journal he expended

so much effort to buy has become stale and worthless. Lewis’s problem is that

he’s working off a fallacy: newspapers are declining in value, the WSJ is a

newspaper, therefore the WSJ will decline in value.

But although that syllogism might work for the Akron Beacon Journal, it doesn’t

apply to the Wall Street Journal, because the WSJ is a brand, and not

an object on newsprint. Financial markets today are broader and deeper than

they have ever been, and everybody in the financial markets needs help navigating

them. That’s why Lewis’s employer, Bloomberg, is doing so well. And if Bloomberg

is one of the strongest brands in financial information, so is the Journal.

Murdoch, if he does end up buying the WSJ, will immediately extend the brand

to his forthcoming business-news TV channel, and I’m sure it won’t take him

much longer to beef up the paper’s operations significantly in the fast-growing

markets of East Asia. At the moment, most of the WSJ’s China coverage is of

interest mainly to a US audience: the paper is a long way from being a must-read

for Chinese businessmen. But the good news for Murdoch is that right now there

simply is no must-read for Chinese businessmen, which means that he

can step in with the WSJ and fill that niche.

What’s more, Murdoch gets the web, as his purchase of MySpace demonstrates.

WSJ.com can and should be a much better website, the first and last place that

businessmen and women around the world need to go for all their financial news

and information. Murdoch has the deep pockets necessary to make that happen.

If Murdoch can take the Wall Street Journal and turn it into a formidable global

brand from its present status as an increasingly-irrelevant newspaper, then

the $5 billion he’s spending on Dow Jones will look cheap. And he’ll have all

the cachet that a newspaper magnate could ever want, to boot.

Posted in Media, publishing | Comments Off on Why The WSJ Is Not Necessarily A Wasting Asset

Loans: More Liquid Than Bonds

There are impressive financings, and then there are mind-blowing financings.

And they way that KKR is raising $24 billion to fund its acquisition of First

Data definitely falls into the latter camp.

Item: KKR will use First Data to issue $8

billion of junk bonds to help pay back the purchase price. That will be

the largest junk-bond issue of all time.

And that’s just the beginning: the largest junk-bond issue of all time is a

mere one third of the total amount of debt financing that KKR is lining

up. The other $16 billion is coming from the

loan market – and all of it is "cov-lite".

When is a loan not a loan? When it’s "cov-lite" – which is

to say that it lacks the covenants (investor protections) that conventionally

distinguish loans from bonds. A cov-lite loan is the worst of both worlds, from

an investor point of view: it doesn’t have the liquidity of a bond, and it doesn’t

have the protections accorded by a loan.

But a $16 billion loan is always going to be pretty liquid, and it will be

distributed to so many banks and hedge funds that maybe the cov-lite option

makes sense. After all, trying to get them all in a room to agree to any modification

of the loan agreement would pose an enormous collective-action problem in and

of itself.

In any case, it’s interesting to me that KKR is finding it easier to raise

money in the loan market than in the bond market. Why? There’s a clue in a comment

from jck on a post of mine earlier today:

The frothy market is for CDS, bond prices have been tanking pretty steadily

for about 3 months.

In English, issuing bonds is expensive, and the yields that companies such

as First Data have to pay to get their bonds out are quite high by the standards

of a few months ago. Meanwhile, buying protection against a loan default has

never been cheaper. So the banks can happily lend $16 billion to First Data,

and then hedge their credit risk in the CDS market.

Who’s selling all that protection? Is it still CDOs? That I don’t know. But

I do get the feeling that if the First Data loan ever does default, the managers

will end up dealing with a very large number of non-bank players from the world

of credit derivatives: not your father’s creditors’ committee, by any means.

Posted in bonds and loans | Comments Off on Loans: More Liquid Than Bonds

Digital Movie Datapoint of the Day

Remember

this next time you hear the movie industry bellyaching about how it "loses"

billions of dollars a year to piracy, and sending

Arnold Schwarzenegger up to Canada to crack down on camcorders in movie theaters:

"The profitability of the film industry has improved dramatically over

the past five to 10 years since the arrival of DVD," said William Kidd,

an entertainment analyst at Wedbush Morgan Securities in Los Angeles. "It’s

less risky and more profitable, so you’re seeing interest from outside investors

to get involved in these deals."

Could it possibly be that the movie studios are making more money than ever?

Maybe even because of, rather than despite, the explosion in digital

technologies?

(Via Cowen)

Posted in intellectual property | Comments Off on Digital Movie Datapoint of the Day

Can Bondholders Make a Profit When a Company Defaults?

Comment

of the day comes from Gari N Corp, on yesterday’s blog entry about credit

spreads:

Hedge fund lenders, in particular, are said to pay much more attention to

recovery rates, i.e. what they recover if they put a borrower into liquidation,

than cashflow.

The thing that everybody seems to be looking at is LGD, or loss given default.

Those losses are smaller than they’ve ever been, and recovery rates are higher

than they’ve ever been. With me so far? Then why not try this on as a crazy

hypothesis:

Hedge funds are buying up junk debt at incredibly low spreads because LGD rates

can, in the context of the private-equity boom, actually be negative.

Here’s how I’m thinking. First, take a junk-rated public company with a well-established

management team who are underperforming the market. Buy the bonds, which pay

a nice hefty coupon, and sit on your easy carry-trade profits. What’s the downside?

Default, of course. But "default" is basically just another word for

"giving the equity in the company to the bondholders". If the company

defaults, the bondholders take possession, and can make a nice profit by selling

it off to a private-equity firm in a friendly, rather than hostile, deal. Everybody

wins, except the old shareholders and the old management.

But isn’t the boom in junk-rated debt largely being driven by companies which

have already been taken private? Well, yes. But even there the same

kind of dynamics can work. If a privately-owned company gets into difficulties,

there is a possibility it will be bailed out by its parent, and bondholders

will stay whole. On the other hand, if the parent company decides to write its

whole investment off, then the bondholders essentially get all the equity in

the company for free, along with all the time and money and effort that the

private-equity buyers have already injected. At that point, they can either

continue to run the company themselves, or they can sell it to some other PE

shop.

Now, I’m not saying that this kind of dynamic is going to play out all the

time, or even most of the time. But it could help to explain at least part of

the frothy market in bond prices at the moment.

Posted in bonds and loans, hedge funds, private equity | Comments Off on Can Bondholders Make a Profit When a Company Defaults?

Can the Bancrofts Trust the Murdochs?

The talks between Murdochs and Bancrofts on Monday were "constructive,"

we’re told. More than four hours long, they centered on the question of the

Wall Street Journal’s editorial independence, and whether Murdoch could guarantee

it:

Chief among the family’s concerns is how the independent board, proposed

by Mr. Murdoch, would be structured. Under one scenario that has been discussed

by family members, the editorial ranks of the company would report up through

a separate structure outside News Corp., said another person close to the

family. The Bancrofts, who control 64% of the voting rights of Dow Jones,

want to ensure that any structure would be strong enough to stand up through

the next generation of News Corp.’s management, according to people close

to the family.

I do think the acquisition will be good for the Journal, and I also think that

the Bancroft’s are going to simply have to take Murdoch’s word that he won’t

interfere with the editorial side of the newspaper. The fact is that, post-acquisition,

the Journal will be a tiny part of a huge publicly-owned international media

conglomerate.

I’m sure that the Murdochs, both Rupert and James, would love nothing more

than to enshrine some kind of Marty Lipton poison pill in News Corp’s structure,

claiming that it’s the only way to get Dow Jones. (Lipton, the inventor of the

poison pill, is the Bancrofts’ lawyer.) Since buying back John Malone’s stake

in News Corp, Rupert Murdoch’s control of News Corp is stronger than ever –

but he knows that won’t necessarily last, especially when he dies and his stake

is divvied up between his six children.

But realistically, nothing that the Murdochs and the Bancrofts sign can provide

a watertight guarantee that News Corp won’t be able to interfere with its property

should it put its mind to it. Josh Chaffin and Aline van Duyn get

to the heart of the matter:

The question then is how enforceable any structure would be, especially in

light of the unclear succession at News Corp, a further issue of concern given

that Mr Murdoch is 76 years old.

“It’s a very difficult kind thing to actually put in writing,”

said Amy Mitchell, deputy director of the Project for Excellence in Journalism.

“So much of it has to do with the rapport and understanding.”

That’s why the meeting lasted more than four hours: the single most important

thing at this point is for the Murdochs to persuade the Bancrofts that they

can be trusted with their beloved newspaper. It won’t be easy, but $5 billion

does have a way of soothing worries somewhat.

Posted in Media, publishing | Comments Off on Can the Bancrofts Trust the Murdochs?