Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About the Buy Side

This is eight different kinds of genius.

Posted in investing, stocks | Comments Off on Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About the Buy Side

Extra Credit, Weekend Edition

The Great Deal Spread of 2008: A merger-arb hit list.

Might Google Buy the New York Times? I thought that was my idea!

The global economic impact of private equity investigated in most comprehensive report: Yes, that really is the headline.

"He didn’t want to tell the truth immediately": An interview with SocGen’s new head of global equities and derivatives.

How Rudy’s Bet Went Wrong

Posted in remainders | Comments Off on Extra Credit, Weekend Edition

Getting Results in Davos

I’ve been on a mini-crusade while in Davos: every time I meet someone with a truncated RSS feed or no RSS feed at all, I get all evangelistic on them about the wonders of full RSS. And guess what – it’s worked! Justin Fox now has a full RSS feed. And Andrew Sorkin of DealBook says he might try it. If it gets good results there, maybe they’ll even roll it out to the rest of the NYT’s blogs!

Posted in Davos 2008 | 1 Comment

The Millennium Development Goals Take Center Stage in Davos

If Bono did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him. The big press conference at Davos today was full of important people making important statements about how very important it is that we meet the Millennium Development Goals; it fell to Bono to be the scold, and to say how disappointed he is in what the world has achieved so far. Politicians, even good ones like Gordon Brown (who gave an excellent, forceful speech) are by their nature much better at optimism than pessimism, which is why it is that Bono always has a place on such panels: he’s the yang to the politicians’ yin.

The great and the good who gave speeches at the press conference are acutely aware that in some sense the MDGs are already a failure. There is zero chance that they will be met on time, by 2015, and the amount of progress that the world has made since they were announced, in 2000, is quite pitiful given the ambition of the goals and the fact that we’re now halfway to deadline.

Then again, as Bill Gates noted, the MDGs are very useful things even if they are not met. They give the world a way of measuring progress in the fight against poverty, and they constitute a global consensus on the most important priorities in that fight.

On the other hand, no one mentioned today that there are big weaknesses to the MDGs as well, not least the fact that there seems to be much more progress than there actually is. If no governments and no NGOs and no corporate citizens and no Swiss talking shops ever did anything at all about the MDGs, the growth of India and China alone would make an enormous dent in them. What’s really important is what Paul Collier calls the "bottom billion": the poor who live in slow-growing countries in sub-Saharan Africa and other places like Haiti. Since the MDGs are global, the world can kid itself that it’s making progress when people come out of poverty in China and India, even if Africa continues to decline.

Posted in Davos 2008 | Comments Off on The Millennium Development Goals Take Center Stage in Davos

Sharing a Cab with an Ayatollah

My Only In Davos moment this morning: sharing a cab from the train station to the conference center with an honest-to-goodness ayatollah, Mahdi Hadavi. He was a panelist at a session I attended yesterday, on faith and modernization, moderated by Tony Blair – that was the panel where I was so impressed by Rick Warren. Given the state of Davos traffic, we had enough time for an interesting conversation, about Tony Blair and Barack Obama.

Hadavi said on the panel that he was impressed by Blair’s moderation now – but that he was very unimpressed at the way in which moderates like Blair seem to transmogrify into extremists when they come into power. He said that all of the presidential candidates in the US were essentially the same, as far as he was concerned: committed to entrenching America’s status as the sole global superpower. Obama, he said, was just as committed to that end as the rest of the candidates, while he ought to be more focused on domestic issues within the US.

That’s one of the good things about Davos: it makes it impossible to think of anybody else as "other" when you chat away with them and realise their views would really not be out of place at a Brooklyn dinner party.

Posted in Davos 2008 | Comments Off on Sharing a Cab with an Ayatollah

When a Merger Arbitrage Goes Sour

The first rule of merger arbitrage is simple: Don’t Try This At Home. If you’re a retail investor and one of your stocks spikes after it agrees to be taken over, sell the stock. Don’t get greedy and wait for that last dollar. And whatever you do, if you don’t own the stock, don’t buy it after the takeover has been announced.

In the wake of my last merger-arb blog entry, I got the following email from a reader, about Transmeridian Exploration, last seen trading at $1.29 per share:

Dear Mr, Salmon

I really need help on this. I bought ( $2.25 ) this stock on Dec 31 2007 when the news came out about the buyout opportunity.

I stupidly use all my money , ALL OF THEM !

Please give me some suggestion. When will this stock go up?

Should I sell part of it ?

I have to say I have no idea: maybe my readers can help? My gut feeling is that if a trade fails, you should cut your losses and get out before it gets worse. But there is an accepted takeover at $3 on the table: if the company does end up being taken over at that price, my reader will end up looking even sillier.

Posted in stocks | Comments Off on When a Merger Arbitrage Goes Sour

SocGen’s Big Mistakes

Did Jerome Kerviel and Societe Generale cause Monday’s market meltdown? I asked the question yesterday, and today it’s looking increasingly as though the answer might be yes. His positions are being reported at between 40 billion and 50 billion euros, which is a lot of money – but not enough to cause a big stock-market meltdown under normal conditions. The thing is, however, the conditions on Monday were far from normal, and the French bank, in liquidating them, made a couple of enormous mistakes.

Firstly, they decided to liquidate as quickly as possible, dumping the overwhelming proportion of their huge long position in one day. And secondly, the day they picked was Martin Luther King Day: a public holiday in the US, which meant that Chicago was closed.

As a result, futures traders across Europe had to scramble to find a huge amount of liquidity in a very short time, and prices predictably plunged.

If I had to guess, I’d say that when Kerviel’s position was discovered, he was maybe 1.5 billion or so euros underwater; the rest of SocGen’s losses are just as much the bank’s fault as they are Kerviel’s. If they’d taken a deep breath and simply bid the position out to a big bank or hedge fund, I think they could have got away with much, much smaller losses.

Posted in banking, derivatives | Comments Off on SocGen’s Big Mistakes

Why I Still Think WSJ.com Will be Free

I’ve said repeatedly on this site that Rupert Murdoch should and will make WSJ.com free. So how am I feeling now that he seems to have said precisely the opposite in Davos? Not quite as wrong as you might think, actually. Put it this way: wait and see.

Here’s the sum total of what Murdoch said on the subject in Davos:

"We are going to greatly expand and improve the free part of The Wall Street Journal online, but there will still be a strong offering" for subscribers, he said. "The really special things will still be a subscription service, and, sorry to tell you, probably more expensive."

Rex Hammock has a very interesting take on this:

Wait. Did he say, “The WSJ.com Won’t Go Free”?…

I predicted what Murdoch said today. They will greatly increase the free part of WSJ.com and charge more for business-critical, technical data. I’ll predict this today: the “greatly expanded and improved free part” of WSJ.com will look a lot like a free WSJ.com to most people who just read the news stories.

Megan Barnett, by contrast, seems to think that there’s going to be an editor at the WSJ somewhere deciding on a real-time basis whether to put stories into the "free" or the "paid" bucket:

There’s no word yet on what the "really special things" are that Murdoch believes will be worth more than the current $99 annual fee. The paper’s meatier, Page One stories will likely fall in that camp, as will its archives. The expanded free part will likely include more of the type that would fall in the Weekend Journal and Personal Journal sections…

Whether or not that reader will be satisfied with access to stories like Women in Power: Finding Balance In the Wardrobe but not ones like Developing Economies Face Reckoning as U.S. Stumbles remains to be seen.

I don’t buy it. The meaty Page One stories are actually one of the few parts of the paper which have had free online links for some years now. And worthy stories about emerging markets are a commodity these days: you can find as many as you like, for free, at bloomberg.com. Besides, no one will visit WSJ.com for fluffy features alone. In any case, I suspect that news stories are not what Murdoch had in mind when he talked about "really special things".

So what might he have been talking about instead? Well, Factiva, for one thing – that would certainly count as "really special", especially if a light version of it was folded into a WSJ.com subscription. Also, the Dow Jones indices, and some of the Dow Jones Newswires content which doesn’t make it into the newspaper. To start with, I’m sure there will be some news stories behind the subscription firewall as well – but the number of them will surely decrease over time.

In any event, most people seem to have glossed straight over the "greatly expand and improve" part of what Murdoch said – which certainly implies that anything which is free right now will remain free. (So no worries about Real Time Economics disappearing behind a subscription firewall – something which was considered, at one point.)

The WSJ’s Emily Steel says that "the mix of free and paid content will continue to be tweaked," which also gives me hope. Because whenever a website "tweaks" that mix, more stuff becomes free and less stuff becomes paid. Eventually, as we’ve seen with the NYT, everything becomes free.

There’s a good reason for that: it’s web design 101 that any visitor to the site should be able to click on any link and end up seeing exactly what he expected to see. People don’t like websites which violate that rule, and stop visiting them. And the effects can be lasting: traffic to economist.com is going to take a long time to get to where it could be, because most of its potential readers still think of it as a subscription site, and it hasn’t done much to disabuse them of that notion, even now that nearly everything they’ll ever want to read there is free.

So what is Murdoch thinking? Simply this: WSJ.com has a huge number of non-price-sensitive subscribers who aren’t spending their own money and who will happily pay $129 to get everything, even if, in practice, they rarely use the premium content. If people are that willing to give you tens of millions of dollars a year, it seems a bit sillly to tell them to keep their money.

Eventually, though, that’s exactly what Murdoch is going to do. He seems determined to compete head-to-head with the NYT, and that means online as well as in the print-newspaper market. At the moment, nytimes.com is a vastly superior website to wsj.com, not only because of its better web design, but also because of the incredible feeling of freedom one has surfing the archives and reading absolutely anything one likes, for free, safe in the knowledge that you can blog or email anything you like, and everybody in the world will likewise be able to read it for free.

In the age of the internet, reading a newspaper has become a social activity. Murdoch, owner of MySpace, knows full well the value of that activity. Which is why I still think WSJ.com is going to be free, even if it might take a little bit longer than I first thought for that to happen.

Posted in Davos 2008, Media | Comments Off on Why I Still Think WSJ.com Will be Free

Gates: Underwhelming

Bill Gates, dishevelled as ever, launched into a hugely-anticipated speech this evening in Davos, the closest thing that this conference has to a keynote. Gates managed to splash the speech all over the front page of today’s WSJ even before he gave it; I’m not sure how much reaction he’ll get now that it’s in the past. If the coverage is commensurate with the number of new ideas he came up with, there’ll be very little.

There was nothing in Gates’s speech which every Davos delegate hasn’t heard a hundred times already. But the speech was webcast and highly flagged, so maybe Davos wasn’t really Gates’s audience. The basic idea of what Gates calls "creative capitalism" is simple: that companies should use their power to innovate for the greater good. "Breakthroughs change lives primarily where people can afford to buy them," he said. "But economic demand is not the same thing as economic need."

Gates seems convinced that "recognition", whatever that might be, will step in and make up for foregone profits: I think he’s mildly delusional on that front. Yes, some companies (Ben & Jerry’s, say) do well by doing good. But more often, companies will not receive much if anything in the way of extra profit if they put the kind of effort that Gates wants into helping out the bottom third of humanity. Gates knows this, which is why he says that the profit motive alone won’t do the trick. And I think he’s right when he says that once a company has signed on to this kind of corporate citizenship, it becomes such a central part of what makes its employees proud to work there that it is quite easy to sustain. But I think he’s going to have to do better than "increased recognition" as a carrot to incentivize CEOs to go there.

Still, the new economy does change the rules, sometimes. The internet can help shine a light on companies which do really good work, and also companies which are very bad in such matters. And more importantly, many of today’s products, such as software and vaccines, have a low marginal cost. That, in turn, allows variable pricing where the poor pay less.

But if Davos was hoping for a paradigm-breaking speech, they didn’t get one: they got a recitation of standard corporate-citizenship bromides instead. Which is all well and good: it happens every day at Davos. It just isn’t very special.

Posted in Davos 2008 | Comments Off on Gates: Underwhelming

Davos Surprise: Rick Warren

The biggest surprise of Davos so far for me? Rick Warren. Being a cosmopolitan atheist type, I’d heard of him, of course, but thought he was, well, author of a bestselling self-help book and pastor of a megachurch somewhere. What I didn’t realise was that he’s been coming to Davos for years, and that he can work his magic on Masters of the Universe – and cynical hacks – just as much as he can on his congregation at home.

"If you’re a global leader, you have to realise that the future of the world is not secularism," he said at a panel on faith and modernity moderated by Tony Blair. "There is going to be more religion, not less. You may not like it, but that’s the way it is."

Warren had some good one-liners: "The church was global 200 years before Davos started talking about globalization," he said. And he was very compelling on the ability of religious institutions to help solve the enormous public-health problems of sub-Saharan Africa. After all, they’re there, on the ground, in the communities that need reaching – and they have credibility with the poor that no one else has.

In terms of being able to pitch his remarks perfectly at the level of the audience to whom he is talking, I’d say that Warren is up at Bill Clinton levels. Who knew?

Posted in Davos 2008 | Comments Off on Davos Surprise: Rick Warren

Debt and Equity: “Fundamentally the Same Thing”

On January 22, 2007, I wrote a slightly confused blog entry called "in defense of leverage", which tried to explain that debt and equity are not nearly as different as people often think. Exactly one year later, on January 22, 2008, Steve Waldman finally got around to doing the job properly:

Creditors (people who lend to a firm) and equityholders (those who own stock) are fundamentally the same thing. Both are just investors, people who place money in the hands of a firm in hopes of getting it back later on, with a little something extra for their troubles. Whether one chooses to invest as a stockholder or bondholder is an idiosyncratic matter. Bondholders sacrifice potential upside for predictability and a legal right to enforce payments. Equityholders have no guaranteed payment schedule, but retain a potentially unlimited claim on a firm’s future success. Firms pay bondholders according to a predetermined payment schedule, interest and principle. Equityholders are paid via dividends or share buybacks, but only when management is confident it has sufficient resources to pay debt obligations and fund firm operations. For those who grew up in the era of structured finanace, the equityholder/bondholder distinction is basically a primitive version of the tranching you’d find in a CDO. (There is the control thing that, as a historical quirk, usually goes exclusively to equityholders, but we’ll put that aside for now. Creditors "own" a company as much as shareholders do, though the two groups have different sorts of rights associated with their claims.)

Read on for why this means we should abolish the tax-deductibility of business interest payments.

Posted in economics | Comments Off on Debt and Equity: “Fundamentally the Same Thing”

The Power of Collaborative Innovation In Action

The theme of Davos this year is "the power of collaborative innovation". As it happens, I’m talking to one veteran delegate who explains that I’m wearing a piece of collaborative innovation around my neck.

In years past, the World Economic Forum, like all such talking shops, gave its participants ID badges which were worn on one of those ubiquitous ball chains. And as anybody who’s ever been to a conference knows, there are two big problems with those things. Firstly, the IDs invariably flip around so you can’t see the name which is meant to be prominently displayed. And secondly, the ball chains are so long that you find yourself staring obviously in the general direction of your fellow participants’ groins. Davos regularly asks for feedback from its delegates, and this was one of the things they complained about. (Rich people: they’ll always think of something to complain about.)

So now, at Davos, we have much more sophisticated ID badges – and I’m not referring to the fact that they incorporate RFID chips which allow you to log into the meeting network with a simple tap. The much more impressive innovation is the fact that the badges are attached not to a ball chain but rather to a short piece of elastic. It never flips around, and it’s short enough that the amount of eye movement needed to see someone’s name is minimal. It should be adopted everywhere.

Posted in Davos 2008 | Comments Off on The Power of Collaborative Innovation In Action

SocGen: The Cause of Monday’s Sell-Off?

Was a single 30-year old French equity-derivatives trader directly responsible for the emergency 75bp rate cut that Ben Bernanke announced on Tuesday morning? It’s entirely possible.

The fraud at Societe Generale was uncovered over the weekend, at which point the bank got to work on Monday morning unwinding an absolutely massive long position in equity futures. It’s hard to prove causality, but it might well have been the case that the unwind was the trigger for the huge global stock-market sell-off on Monday, which in turn undoubtedly caused the Fed rate cut on Tuesday.

Here in Davos, French prime minister Francois Fillon is in denial, saying that “it has nothing to do with the situation on the financial markets”. Dude – it was an equity futures position. If that has nothing to do with financial markets, what does?

Posted in Davos 2008, derivatives, stocks | Comments Off on SocGen: The Cause of Monday’s Sell-Off?

Optimism over Africa

Paul Collier and other old Africa hands gathered in Davos on Wednesday to talk about "Africa’s governance dividend". The past few years have seen Africa’s strongest growth in living memory, and the mood was cautiously optimistic – risks of a global demand crunch and the ongoing AIDS crisis notwithstanding.

Why is Africa starting to grow now? Certainly the strong global economy has helped contribute to Africa’s success, but that’s hardly a sufficient cause for what has been seen from Nigeria to Mozambique. And no one really believed that foreign aid has helped much, or African democracy. Rather, the explanation was much more down-to-earth: trial and error.

Africans have graduated from the best school in the world: the discipline of experience and failure. People have learned what not to do. Not all policies are brilliant, but Africa is avoiding the truly bad ones, such as inflation and corruption. Because this learning process has been gradual, it has also been robust.

For the foreseeable future Africa is likely to have at least a few countries wracked by inflation or war, and the chances of corruption being eradicated soon are nil. But the key point is that the Africans know what their problems are, and they are getting much better at finding their own solutions.

Relatedly, the WEF released on Thursday a report about business coalitions tackling HIV/AIDS in Africa. Now that Africa is growing again, companies increasingly want to do business there – and that means dealing with the AIDS crisis head-on. The biggest multinationals, like Heineken and Unilever, provide ARV treatments to their employees for free, and open up their supply lines for the delivery of drugs as well as beer and soap. But businesses of any size can help with destigmatizing the disease in the workplace, and educating their employees and customers. This report is useful because it’s the first time that a list of all these business coalitions has been collated. It’s not a magic bullet, but Africa has learned that those never work anyway.

Posted in Davos 2008, development | Comments Off on Optimism over Africa

Musharraf on the Islamic Bomb

Pervez Musharraf, speaking at Davos, is a bit peevish:

We are a nuclear state. Why does the world insist on calling this an Islamic bomb? There is no Hindu bomb or Jew bomb or Buddhist Bomb or Christian Bomb. This I do not understand. And the man on the street in Pakistan does not understand.

I feel a table coming on.

Phrase Google results
"Islamic bomb" 45,100
"Hindu bomb" 1,510
"Jewish bomb" 1,910
"Christian bomb" 1,520
Posted in Davos 2008, geopolitics | Comments Off on Musharraf on the Islamic Bomb

Equity Derivatives House of the Year

An as-yet-unnamed trader at SocGen has somehow contrived to lose more than $7 billion by making bad directional bets on equity indices. Bloomberg’s Gregory Viscusi is on irony watch:

"At first this seemed like a joke," said Nicolas Rutsaert, an analyst covering European banks at Dexia SA in Brussels. Societe Generale “was a leader in derivatives and was considered one of the best risk managers in the world.”…

Societe Generale has ranked first or second during the past five years in client surveys of equity derivative firms, according to Risk Magazine. In 2007, it received the award for "Equity Derivatives House of the Year” from The Banker, a London-based monthly magazine.

You can see why that might be, given the amount of money that the rest of the equities-trading world was, we now realize, making from this one out-of-control trader.

Posted in banking, derivatives | Comments Off on Equity Derivatives House of the Year

What Stock Market Volatility?

peratio.jpg

The WSJ has a great little interactive feature today – or at least it would be great if it didn’t start talking at you the minute you opened it and every time you click on a new tab. Turn your speakers off first!

In any case, the graph above shows the S&P 500, in red, against the S&P’s p/e ratio, in yellow. Turns out that the p/e ratio has been as flat as Kansas for well over three years, in fact trending downwards slightly even as the market was hitting new highs last year. A bubble this ain’t.

This graph can be seen as a cause for optimism: there wasn’t irrational exuberance in the stock market of late, and it seems that if there is a pullback in corporate earnings – as you can see at the end of 2001 – the p/e ratio has no problem spiking upwards in response.

(Via Gaffen)

Posted in stocks | Comments Off on What Stock Market Volatility?

What if the Bears are Right?

Let’s say – just for the sake of argument – that the bears are right, and that we’ve finally come to the end of a long capital-markets boom. Global equity markets are going to fall dramatically, thanks to falling corporate profits, higher risk aversion, and lower p/e ratios. Global debt markets will fall too, as credit dries up and defaults rise. Securitized receivables will be devastated as America’s subprime mortgage woes spill over first into alt-A and prime – not to mention credit cards and auto loans – and then into all the other countries with housing bubbles, such as the UK, Spain, and South Africa. Consumer spending will fall dramatically as cheap credit disappears, belts start being tightened, and food prices take up an increasing share of household expenditure. Central bankers in Europe and the US will find themselves as powerless as their Japanese counterparts to turn the situation around. And all this just as the fiscal disaster known as the baby boom starts retiring and demanding trillions of dollars from governments around the world.

How would you monetize that?

It’s not easy. Think back to Japan, during its long bust: there were so few attractive investments that Mrs Watanabe was forced to become a currency speculator in a desperate attempt to find positive returns. One might try a play on higher food prices: some kind of agricultural-commodities fund, perhaps. Speculators could always go short stocks, long credit protection, short housing. Or just give their money to John Paulson to manage.

But the average schlub with a modest 401(k) is in a much more invidious position. For much of the US population, and the UK too, investing is the stock market. You can buy stocks or funds, you can buy value or growth, you can buy options or futures. But overall there is an absolutely enormous structural long position in US equities which hasn’t even started to unwind yet and which has no idea where else it might go, beyond foreign equities which if anything are even more overvalued. If you’re looking for a moderate-risk long-term investment, and if you buy the bearish position, I have to say I’m a bit short on bright ideas.

Posted in economics, stocks | Comments Off on What if the Bears are Right?

Extra Credit, Soros Edition

The worst market crisis in 60 years: Soros is bearish.

Soros Says U.S. Recession Is ‘Almost Inevitable’; Soros Sees End of Dollar-Backed Credit Expansion: Bloomberg on Soros.

The gloomy gospel according to George Soros: Leonard on Soros.

Systemic Failure: Norris on Soros.

Time, gentlemen, please: Price on Soros.

CapitalistCast 2: Life in Davos is hard: Ned Phelps on Soros. "What is Soros referring to when he says ‘the worst crisis in 60 years’? That was 1948."

Posted in remainders | Comments Off on Extra Credit, Soros Edition

Davos Round-Up

Ned Phelps: Nice guy. And prescient, too: he put all his Nobel Prize money into bonds.

Esther Dyson: Speaks fluent Russian.

Mike Arrington: Rocked up in faded bluejeans and dirty white sneakers. Masters of the Universe not visibly impressed.

Rupert Murdoch: Needs no link. Clearly a Davos veteran. Wears incredibly unfashionable yet practical brown Puma sneakers. Is very nice to everyone. Probably runs the world.

Posted in Davos 2008 | Comments Off on Davos Round-Up

Davos Moment of the Day

Igor Shevchenko, a Ukrainian lawyer, introduces himself to Walter Isaacson of the Aspen Institute; it just so happens (really!) that Shevchenko has a copy of Isaacson’s biography of Henry Kissinger in his bag. Isaacson signs it, of course, and then says to Shevchenko "you should get Henry to sign it too". For Kissinger is, inevitably, standing right in front of them in the Davos conference center.

Posted in Davos 2008 | Comments Off on Davos Moment of the Day

The Fed’s 125bp Two-Step

My blog entry about the surprise rate cut yesterday was very much a gut reaction, put out very quickly as my gate was being called at Heathrow. But it’s received a lot of attention in the blogosphere, and with 24 hours’ hindsight (and a bit of embarrassment about an unnecessary "now" in the blog entry) I have no regrets. I do think that the move smells of panic and of trying to support the stock market, and I’m not remotely swayed by James Hamilton’s attempt at rallying to the Fed’s defense:

I doubt very much that anyone on the FOMC has much interest in protecting the investments of stock market participants. Instead, I suspect that the Fed is using equity prices just as I and many other economic analysts do, namely, as a useful aggregator of private and public information about near-term prospects for economic growth.

If the Fed was really just treating the stock market as a kind of economic prediction market, then there would have been no urgency to cut rates yesterday, rather than waiting until the regularly-scheduled meeting. After all, on a macroeconomic level it’s hardly going to make a huge amount of difference whether you cut rates one week or the next.

To be fair to the Fed, however, there is one reason for cutting rates a week early which doesn’t involve the stock market. Let’s say that the Fed, looking at all its favorite indicators including the stock market, decided that the economy needed 125bp of rate cuts by the end of the month. It could either cut by 125bp at the regularly-scheduled meeting, or it could cut by 75bp yesterday, and then by another 50bp next week. It’s definitely possible that the two-step approach would look less drastic and panicked than the one Monster Cut.

But for a longer and more coherent defense of my gut view against the more considered opinions of Hamilton, I point you to Steve Waldman, who resuscitates William Poole’s November speech on the "Fed put". Poole, notably, was the sole dissenter on the FOMC yesterday, and he’s also the Fed member who’s most willing to admit that the put exists, although he doesn’t consider it particularly harmful.

In any case, I think it’s fair to say that if the Fed doesn’t cut rates on January 30, Hamilton’s defense goes up in smoke. But of course they will.

Posted in fiscal and monetary policy | Comments Off on The Fed’s 125bp Two-Step

Merger Arbitrage Site of the Day

No more relying on Dana Cimilluca to find failed merger-arb trades! It turns out that a chap called Plamen Tsolov has created Arbitrage View, a web page with a continually-updated list of arbitrage opportunities in pending merger deals in the US market. At the top of the list is Transmeridian Exploration, which has agreed to be bought by Trans Meridian International for $3 per share. But the stock is stubbornly refusing to go there: it closed Tuesday at $1.31. If the merger goes through as scheduled at the end of June, that’s an arbitrage profit of 129%, and an annualized profit of almost 300%. (The annualized profit on the Merrill Lynch – Cumulus Media trade is even bigger, at an eye-popping 1,847%, but that’s because it’s due to close on February 15: the arbitrage profit is slightly smaller, at 116%.)

There are some very big deals near the top of the list: 3Com has agreed to be bought by Bain Capital for $5.30, for instance, but it’s trading at $4.02. And the proposed management buy-out of Cablevision Systems, at $36.36 per share, is vastly above the share price of $21.77. Read this table, and weep for the merger arbs!

Posted in hedge funds, M&A, stocks | Comments Off on Merger Arbitrage Site of the Day

But What Does He Think About Motherhood and Apple Pie?

I just walked into the opening press conference at Davos, where the co-chairmen of the World Economic Forum are talking about what they are looking to talk about and achieve. Tony Blair is beaming admiringly at Henry Kissinger, but the quote of the press conference so far has to go to Jamie Dimon, with his opening sentence: "Number one on my list is world peace." He’s an investment banker, so I’m sure he’s been in his fair share of beauty contests, but still.

Posted in Davos 2008 | Comments Off on But What Does He Think About Motherhood and Apple Pie?

Davos: Bearishness Rules

I’ve only just arrived in Davos, and already I’m wondering how I’m going to be able to cope: the scene here is far crazier than at any other gabfest I’ve been to. The smart people just blow it off altogether and make sure they spend some quality time on the slopes, but I’m not smart, is the problem.

In any case, the World Economic Forum was kicked off for the third year running with a big state-of-the-global-economy panel featuring Nouriel Roubini, Kamil Nath, Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala, Ferenc Gyurcsany, Stephen Roach, and Yu Yongding. Naturally, the tendentious economists (Roubini and Roach) stole the show, with the more mild-mannered public officials being rather more cautious in their comments. But interestingly Roubini’s predictable bearishness was met with no pushback whatsoever: given the panic in global stock markets and the US central bank, he’s sounding positively mainstream at this point. Maybe that’s the ultimate buy signal: when everybody agrees with Roubini, you know it can’t get any worse.

If there was one theme running through the panel’s discussion, it was food inflation, interestingly enough. As the world’s poor continue to eat more and more, food seems to be the one commodity which is not at risk of a bursting bubble. But the EU and the US are still in a mindset of subsidizing their farmers, often paying them not to produce crops – this, as global demand is outstripping supply! As ever, there will be Doha-round trade talks in Davos this year, on Saturday, and as ever, agricultural subsidies will be high up on the agenda. But maybe food inflation provides a glimmer of hope there, since pretty soon US and European farmers won’t need to be subsidized, their crops will be so valuable.

On the macroeconomic front, Roach was convincingly bearish: the US consumption rate is now 75% of GDP, he said, an all-time world record. That’s bound to come down over time, towards a long-run average closer to 67% – but a fast slump down to 70% or so would create "the mother of all recessions". The only chink of hope came from Time’s Michael Elliott, who was moderating the panel, who said that he and many other holders of US mortgages might soon be tempted to refinance if rates keep coming down at this rate. Yesterday, Ken Houghton noted in the comments on this blog that already his HELOC has is 100bp lower than his mortgage.

And Yu also noted political risks in China: there are 150 million small Chinese stock-market investors who are going to be very angry if and when the Chinese stock-market bubble bursts. "They were hopeful that they could regain their money, and then they lost more," he said. The general consensus seemed to be that 2008 is going to be a very tough year indeed, not only for the US but also for China, Europe, and most of the rest of the world (with the possible exception of India).

Posted in Davos 2008, economics | Comments Off on Davos: Bearishness Rules