Category Archives: fiscal and monetary policy

How Risky are the Fed’s Actions?

Jeff Cane today cites with approval Edmund Andrews: On Sunday, Fed officials raised the stakes by offering investment banks a new loan program without any explicit size limit. These moves, along with a $30 billion credit line to help JPMorgan … Continue reading

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Bernanke Shows a Tiny Bit of Restraint

After a busy weekend, Ben Bernanke is clearly tired of giving the markets absolutely everything they want. Instead, he’s just giving them nearly everything they want. Today’s 75bp cut is actually a 100bp cut in the discount rate, at least … Continue reading

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Why The Low Capital Gains Tax? (Redux)

Portfolio’s editors, in the April issue of the magazine, tackle the issue of which Bush tax cuts should be left to expire in 2010, and which should be extended. I like the idea of a flat 15% inheritance tax rate … Continue reading

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Lehman: Battered Hard

Now that European markets have closed, it seems that the US markets are taking a decided turn for the worse, with Lehman Brothers unsurprisingly leading the way down: it’s dropped more than 40% so far today and no one knows … Continue reading

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Chart of the Day: Fed Lending

WCW has this chart, and says of it: Any time that a properly normalized series starts rivaling the freaking Depression, you have to worry. Worry? Yes, I’m worried. But not so much because banks are borrowing from the Fed again … Continue reading

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The Fed Needs Credit Confidence to Return. Today.

Today could be the single most important day in the history of this credit crunch. Up until now, every major Fed announcement has resulted in a market pop, at least for one day. If in the wake of $30 billion … Continue reading

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The New Committee to Save the World

Ben Bernanke hasn’t caught very many lucky breaks of late, but the fact that Bear Stearns hit its liquidity crunch and got downgraded by all three ratings agencies on a Friday is probably one of them. The downgrade wasn’t welcome, … Continue reading

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Did the Fed’s Bear Bailout Prevent a Stock-Market Panic?

Willem Buiter explains today why he thinks the Bear bailout was unwarranted. I apologise for quoting at some length, but believe me, it’s a lot shorter than the 2,150-word blog entry: While the Fed, like any public institution, should support … Continue reading

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Should the US Government Buy Bank Equity?

David Wessel has been hanging out with Myron Scholes, who wants the US government to start buying equity in US banks. Yikes! Should the government (the U.S. government, that is, not foreign governments’ sovereign wealth funds) put capital into banks? … Continue reading

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The Fool of Last Resort

The Fed is worried about a lack of liquidity in the credit markets. The Fed acts to make the markets more liquid. Is the Fed’s action foolish? We hope so! We like to think: "market — trade — liquidity — … Continue reading

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TSLF: TAF for Investment Banks

So you still want to know the difference between the TAF and the TSLF? Over at Interfluidity, "livingstone guy" explains: The new repo line you talk about is nothing more than the TAF for the brokers who dont have access … Continue reading

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Bernanke Invents a New Weapon

Do you know your TAF from your TSLF? Frankly, it doesn’t matter if you don’t. Think of Ben Bernanke as action hero: every time the credit markets seize up and threaten to bring down the US financial system, he pulls … Continue reading

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Why the Fed’s Interventions Aren’t Working

If you’re a bank and you need to shore up your capital base, you have the option of raising new equity, by selling shares to the public or to your friendly local sovereign wealth fund. There are other options, too. … Continue reading

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Tim Geithner on the Financial Crisis: A Mock Interview

I popped uptown this afternoon, to the Council on Foreign Relations, to hear NY Fed president Tim Geithner give a big speech on the current financial crisis. Geithner is the central banker closest to the markets, but he’s been pretty … Continue reading

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State and Local Taxes Shouldn’t be Deductible

Back at the end of 2004, the New York Times warned darkly that the Bush Administration had plans up its sleeve to abolish the deductibility of state and local income taxes on federal tax returns. And lo, less than a … Continue reading

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Should the US Government Buy Distressed Bonds?

The Federal reserve, and the Federal Home Loan Banks, and Fannie Mae, and Freddie Mac, between them, have injected a huge amount of liquidity into the banking system during this credit crunch. But it’s been done in a reactive manner, … Continue reading

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Ben Bernanke, Optimist

I actually read Ben Bernanke’s testimony today all the way through to the end – this should get me a gold star from Barry Ritholtz, at the very least. The not-particularly-surprising news, of course, is that he’ll continue to cut … Continue reading

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Explaining the Bank of England’s High Interest Rates

In its front-page curtain-raiser for the Bank of England’s rate cut today, the WSJ prints a chart with the headline "Banking Bubble?". It shows that the financial sector now accounts for more than a fifth of all jobs in the … Continue reading

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Criticizing Greenspan’s Rate Hikes

We all know the thesis that the subprime crisis is Alan Greenspan’s fault for cutting interest rates way too much and fuelling an unsustainable mortgage-credit bubble. But now Michael Mandel comes along with the flipside argument: that the subprime crisis … Continue reading

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Payrolls: There’s More Rate Cuts Coming

I got a sad email from a friend at Morgan Stanley yesterday, talking of the hundreds of employees who were "marched out of the building" at 9:15 in the morning, part (one assumes) of the previously-announced headcount reduction. Morgan Stanley, … Continue reading

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50bp, Right on Schedule

So it was to be 50bp after all: Ben Bernanke has proved himself capable of following through in the two-step rate cut he initiated a week ago, even in the knowledge that cutting 125bp over the course of little more … Continue reading

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GDP Growth: Low, and Falling

We officially didn’t enter a recession in 2007: GDP growth for the fourth quarter was positive, albeit very low at 0.6%. The main engine of growth is still consumer spending, rather than exports, but it’s slowing, contributing 1.4 percentage points … Continue reading

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Fiscal Stimulus: The Consumption Dilemma

Zubin Jelveh has some advice for the IRS on how to spin the upcoming tax rebate so that people will spend it rather than save it. It’s good advice, too – for any politician looking to maximize the bang for … Continue reading

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How to Monetize Fed Cuts

Matt, a loyal reader, emails: If Ben is dropping money from helicopters, how do I get some? We’re not talking about professional money traders here who can simply play in the Fed funds futures market. If you’re a retail investor … Continue reading

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The Fed’s 125bp Two-Step

My blog entry about the surprise rate cut yesterday was very much a gut reaction, put out very quickly as my gate was being called at Heathrow. But it’s received a lot of attention in the blogosphere, and with 24 … Continue reading

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