Category Archives: emerging markets

Are We Facing a New Wave of Sovereign Bond Defaults?

Posted on June 24, 2008 by Felix

Carmen Reinhart and Ken Rogoff have a very peculiar op-ed in the WSJ today, warning of the risk that there will be another wave of emerging-market sovereign bond defaults. Now Rogoff, a former director of the IMF’s research department, is … Continue reading →

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Left-Wing Democracy in Action, Ecuador Edition

Posted on June 5, 2008 by Felix

As you surely know, Ecuador is in the process of putting together a new constitution. And this week’s report on Ecuadorean politics and economics from Analytica Securities in Quito (you are on their email list, right?) outlines few of the … Continue reading →

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The Risks of an Argentine Financial Crisis

Posted on May 19, 2008 by Felix

Finally! A good old-fashioned emerging-market currency crisis! Well, possibly, anyway. The WSJ headline says it all: Argentines Rush to Buy Dollars Amid Fear of a Financial Crisis This, if it happens, will turn out to be the most-forecasted crisis in … Continue reading →

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Zimbabwe Datapoint of the Day, Banknote Edition

Posted on May 16, 2008 by Felix

How does one pay for a $340 million beer? With a half-a-billion-dollar banknote, of course. This is the fourth set of high denomination notes to be issued this year, the first being in January when a 10 million dollar note … Continue reading →

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Zimbabwe Datapoint of the Day

Posted on May 15, 2008 by Felix

Ian Brakspear: During the meal, one of my mates was drinking beer – 750ml bottles of Castle Lager (fondly called bombers) he ordered a 5th one, was advised that the price, which when he ordered his 1st, 2nd 3rd and … Continue reading →

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The Brazilian Economic Miracle

Posted on May 13, 2008 by Felix

There’s really nothing new in Matt Moffett’s front-pager on Brazil in today’s WSJ, but it’s worth a read anyway, especially if you haven’t been following the Brazil story very closely. My favorite phrase in the piece comes from the president … Continue reading →

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Brazil Finally Gets its Investment-Grade Credit Rating

Posted on April 30, 2008 by Felix

File under "about time too": Brazil has finally been upgraded to an investment-grade credit rating by S&P. The stock market hit a new record high in celebration, and the bonds tightened in even further: The yield to the 2015 call … Continue reading →

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The Housing Crunch Without Houses

Posted on March 20, 2008 by Felix

In an interactive feature of mine earlier this month, the most bubblicious bubble of them all was Astana, the new capital of Kazakhstan. Well, it seems to be bursting already: Bloomberg is running the wonderful headline "Kazakhs Get Craters, Not … Continue reading →

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Lacey Gallagher, RIP

Posted on February 28, 2008 by Felix

I knew Lacey for many years, she was always vivacious and insightful. This is incredibly sad news, although not unexpected. Here is the memo which went out today from Mike Ryan and Bunt Gosh at her last employer, Credit Suisse. … Continue reading →

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Brazil Datapoint of the Day

Posted on February 28, 2008 by Felix

From Annelena Lobb: Brazil edged past China to become the largest emerging market in the world, as measured by Morgan Stanley Capital International’s emerging markets index. Brazil has a free-float market capitalization of $509.10 billion and comprises 14.95% of the … Continue reading →

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Zimbabwean Dollar Website of the Day

Posted on February 17, 2008 by Felix

It gives me great pleasure to announce that Market Movers has nabbed itself 11,000 valuable pixels on the Million Zimbabwean Dollar Homepage, for the bargain price of just $0.41, plus a $0.35 paypal fee. From the FAQ: 8. How long … Continue reading →

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Emerging Markets: Safer than Banks

Posted on February 12, 2008 by Felix

I’m at the Fitch Latin America Sovereign Hotspots conference at the technologically-challenged Warwick Hotel this morning, where the irrepressibly quotable David Rolley, of Loomis Sayles, just appeared on a panel. Rolley’s always interesting, partly because he doesn’t confine himself to … Continue reading →

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World Bank Pays Off Nicaraguan Debt at 4.5 Cents on the Dollar

Posted on December 7, 2007 by Felix

Here’s something which hasn’t got a lot of traction in the press: the World Bank has just spent $61 million on paying off a bunch of old Nicaraguan debt dating back to the late 1970s and early 1980s. The amount … Continue reading →

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Bonkers Idea of the Day, EM Debt Edition

Posted on October 10, 2007 by Felix

One of the things I love about academic economists is that they have a certain amount of freedom to be utterly bonkers occasionally. The LSE’s Bernardo Guimaraes has a modest proposal up at Vox: rewrite the bonds of developing countries … Continue reading →

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The Emerging Markets Bubble

Posted on September 20, 2007 by Felix

If the Fed’s cutting rates, then it must be blowing another bubble, right? But it’s not going to be tech stocks or housing again, so what’s left? Green technology, obviously, is bubblicious right now, but it’s also tiny: investment of … Continue reading →

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Mexico’s Financial System: Strong, Not Weak

Posted on August 3, 2007 by Felix

Joel Kurtzman has a rather needlessly
aggressive attack on those inefficient Mexcians on the op-ed page of today’s
WSJ.
Continue reading →

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Emerging Markets: Yields and Spreads

Posted on July 24, 2007 by Felix

Alphaville’s Gwen Robinson has gotten
her hands on some research from CLSA’s Christopher Wood,
who foresees emerging-market debt yields even lower than the yields on US Treasury
bonds.
Continue reading →

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Corrupt Finance Minister Watch: Miceli Goes, Patino Stays

Posted on July 17, 2007 by Felix

If you had to guess, a few weeks ago, which Latin finance minister would be
forced to resign in the wake of a corruption scandal, your answer would be very
easy: Ricardo Patiño of Ecuador, who was censured by
his own congress on Friday for insider dealing in his own country’s debt –
a deal which reportedly
netted investors more than $150 million, while Ecuador itself made a healthy
$50 million.
Continue reading →

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Between the Cracks: Today’s $2 Billion Brazilian IPO

Posted on July 13, 2007 by Felix

A consortium of three banks
in Brazil, including Citigroup, has just sold a
22% stake in Redecard, the Brazilian credit-card network, for $2.15 billion.
Continue reading →

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BRICs vs ICs

Posted on July 12, 2007 by Felix

Justin Fox today lays
out the reasons why Brazil and Rusia pale in importance besides India and
China.
Continue reading →

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Argentina Quietly Starts Making Friends With Energy Companies

Posted on July 10, 2007 by Felix

Everyone wins. The energy companies get the tariff increases they’ve long been demanding, Argentina gets the energy it needs, and Kirchner gets to keep the whole thing quiet.
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Emerging Markets Reach Parity With Developed Markets

Posted on July 5, 2007 by Felix

Emerging-market
equities are now trading at the same multiple as developed markets
Continue reading →

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Goldman in Moscow

Posted on June 11, 2007 by Felix

Goldman Sachs is a formidable force wherever in the world it operates. So it’s
likely to do well in Moscow, where it’s now announced
plans to add another 25 bankers, at somewhere north of $5m per annum apiece.
Continue reading →

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Argentina’s “Intergalactic Dead Cat Bounce”

Posted on June 5, 2007 by Felix

Argentina has already seemingly violated numerous laws of economics: why shouldn’t it violate the laws of physics, too?
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Ecuador: The Finance Minister, the Investment Banker, the Scandal, and Me

Posted on May 25, 2007 by Felix

As far back as December I posted
a blog entry
at rgemonitor.com saying that "a devious Ecuadorean finance minister"
could make quite a lot of money by manipulating the CDS market.
Continue reading →

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