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Author Archives: Felix
Sell Signal of the Day, Greenspan Edition
Alan Greenspan’s calling a bottom: Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said financial markets and the economy will recover "sooner rather than later" from the worst turmoil in seven decades. "Trust will eventually reemerge as investors dip hesitantly back into … Continue reading
Posted in fiscal and monetary policy
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Bailout Datapoint of the Day, AIG Edition
Remember the $85 billion loan that the US government extended to AIG? It turns out the insurer really needed that much money after all: The firm tapped about $61 billion of the federal credit line after saying Sept. 16 it … Continue reading
Posted in bailouts, bonds and loans, insurance
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Wells-Wachovia: Good for Everyone but Citi
Maybe Warren Buffett changed his mind? Wells Fargo has now snatched Wachovia out of the jaws of Citigroup. This deal is good for the US taxpayer, which no longer has to backstop the acquirer’s losses on the deal, and bad … Continue reading
Posted in banking
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Extra Credit, Thursday Edition
Fed Watch: Rate Cuts Increasingly Likely Bailout narratives: "The real financial rescue still lies in the future, probably under the Obama administration." Can we wait that long? Introduction to SwapRent: If debt-to-equity swaps work for banks, why not for houses … Continue reading
Posted in remainders
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The Downside
The S&P 500 closed today at its lowest end-of-day level since October 2004 — lower, even, than it closed on Monday. I spent much of the afternoon talking to perennial pessimist Bill Rhodes, at Citibank, who was keeping one eye … Continue reading
Posted in economics
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Is Transparency Always a Good Idea?
I’m not a fan of this proposal from Josh Rosner, via Gillian Tett: Joshua Rosner, a New York analyst, for example, has made the sensible suggestion that AIG should reveal the banks that have received credit protection as a condition … Continue reading
Posted in banking, derivatives
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Soundbite of the Day, Customer Service Department
Tyler Cowen: Bush, Bernanke, Paulson — we call them leaders. The Chinese think of them as the customer service department. I suspect the Chinese get straighter answers from them than we ever do. Related: Alea has an intriguing answer to … Continue reading
Posted in china, foreign exchange
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Why Mark to Market?
How was I not aware, until now, that what looks like a full RSS feed for Justin Fox’s excellent Curious Capitalist blog actually isn’t? He didn’t write 314 words on the pros and cons of marking to market: in fact … Continue reading
Posted in accounting
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Why the Bailout Bill Alone Won’t Solve the Credit Crisis
I’m not surprised that three-month Libor ticked up again today, to 4.21%. TED’s now at 357bp (chart above), which is really bad, and it’s going up, not down. While the stock market has settled down after the chaos of Monday, … Continue reading
Posted in bailouts, bonds and loans
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There’s No Such Thing as Risk-Free
Andrew Hill is, I fear, a bit confused. He starts off with the very important point that in these days of monster bailouts government guarantees ain’t what they used to be: Pause a second before you transfer your sterling deposits … Continue reading
Posted in bonds and loans
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Goldman Sachs and the Regulatory Arbitrage Trade
Sam Jones has a great piece this morning on regulatory arbitrage under Basel II — which turns out to have been one of the big business lines of the doomed AIG Financial Products. Banks have to have a certain amount … Continue reading
Posted in banking, derivatives, insurance, regulation
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Zero-Baseline Datapoint of the Day
The $9.3 billion Short Term Fund, offered as a place for schools and colleges to park their cash and get "returns slightly above U.S. Treasury bills", has now been frozen by its trustee, the stub of Wachovia which wasn’t taken … Continue reading
Posted in hedge funds, investing
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A New Derivative
What was all that about derivatives being finanial weapons of mass destruction? Not any more! Chicago-based Actuarials Holdings, parent company of the Everest OTC Trade Facility and the AE Clearinghouse, has unveiled what it says is a revolutionary ‘safe’ derivative … Continue reading
Posted in derivatives
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Extra Credit, Wednesday Edition
Making Sense of Manhattan Real Estate: Can’t be done. House Price Calculator: From OFHEO. Seems a bit optimistic. WaMu Changes Stance On Grey: It’s the new blue! Global Derivatives Market now valued at $1.14 Quadrillion: Yet another entry in the … Continue reading
Posted in remainders
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The Human Toll of the Credit Crisis
If you check out Joe Nocera’s blog at the NYT, it’s accompanied by this smiling photograph: But scroll down a little, and you’ll see what the credit crisis has wrought: Legislators, pass the bailout bill! Our journalists can’t take much … Continue reading
Posted in bailouts
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Don’t Get Sanguine About This Bill
After the lessons we learned on Monday, it’s a good idea to pay attention to people who say that the bailout bill is going to have difficulty getting passed in the House. And Andrew Leonard, today, says just that: The … Continue reading
Even the Shorts are Losing Now
How on earth did David Einhorn’s Greenlight Re contrive to lose 11.5% on its investment portfolio in September, the month that Lehman Brothers went bust? Einhorn has famously been short Lehman for many months, and the short-selling ban didn’t apply … Continue reading
Posted in hedge funds, insurance
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Did Buffett Kill the Wells Fargo-Wachovia Deal?
Why did the Wells Fargo deal to buy Wachovia fall through at the last minute? The WSJ reports that Wells Fargo CEO chairman Dick Kovacevich blamed perceived weaknesses in a surprising area of Wachovia’s loan portfolio: Wachovia’s advisers were surprised … Continue reading
Libor Update: Still Frozen
Overnight Libor came down today, to Extremely High from Utterly Ridiculous. But three-month Libor went up: it’s now 4.15%, which means that TED’s at 334bp — or as it’s referred to these days, "frozen". (No interbank lending is actually going … Continue reading
Posted in bonds and loans
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The Lloyds-HBOS Arbitrage
Robert Peston is on form this morning, writing about the proposed takeover of HBOS by Lloyds TSB: If you believe that the terms of the deal won’t and can’t be changed, the current HBOS share price is an opportunity to … Continue reading
Food Price Datapoint of the Day
David Chang: Farmer Michael’s feed costs have risen 400 percent in the last twelve months. To make a profit on the beautiful turkeys his family is raising in time for Thanksgiving, he’ll have to charge a hundred bucks a bird. … Continue reading
Posted in food
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Annals of Legislative Incompetence, Pennsylvania Edition
It’s not just federal legislators who are good at screwing up carefully-negotiated deals. Pennsylvania’s governor, Ed Rendell, faced with a $1.7 billion transportation funding shortfall, came up with a very bright idea: selling off a concession to run the Pennsylvania … Continue reading
Posted in infrastructure
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Lehman Bust Hits NYC Commercial Property
One of the main drivers of New York City’s commercial property boom was Lehman Brothers. Now that Lehman’s gone bust, the NYC commercial property market seems to have ground to a halt. It was probably going to happen sooner or … Continue reading
Posted in housing
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Extra Credit, Tuesday Edition
Why Main Street should support this rescue: A good, clear explanation. Where Will the Money Come From? DeLong Krugman explains why a bailout won’t need outside funds. Congresswomen Explain "Nay" Vote: This is how the sausage fails to get made. … Continue reading
Posted in remainders
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When Stocks Soar
If a stock ever moved resolutely sideways, it was Wachovia. From September 2004 until September 2007, it basically traded at $50 a share: sometimes a little less, sometimes a little more. And then it started a year-long decline, which culminated … Continue reading
Posted in journalism, stocks
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