Author Archives: Felix

Economic and Financial Bad News

Posted on October 30, 2008 by Felix

If you’re one of those people who needs a negative GDP number to convince yourself that we’re in a recession, here you go. But the headline -0.3% figure isn’t the worst bit: that would be the 8.7% fall in disposable … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Wednesday Edition

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Felix

Treasury, FDIC Crafting Plan to Rework Millions of Mortgages: We need a lot more detail than this before working out what to make of it. So how many hedgies did Porsche really kill? Not as many as you might think. … Continue reading →

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Might Blackstone Go Private?

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Felix

At lunch today with Mick Weinstein of Seeking Alpha, I wondered whether Blackstone, which currently has a market capitalization of around $2 billion, might not be a takeover candidate. After all, it would be something of a jewel for many … Continue reading →

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Stock Volatility Datapoint of the Day

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Felix

We’re used to big stock-market swings in the last hour or even half-hour of trading. But the last ten minutes? The Dow was at 9,350 at 3:48; ten minutes later, it was at 8,960. That’s a drop of almost 400 … Continue reading →

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CDS: The Less You Know, The Worse They Look

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Felix

For those of you who like your CDS exposés presented in the mellow tones of Leonard Lopate and Jesse Eisinger over the course of a leisurely half-hour, here you go. This is a sober public radio progam, not a finger-pointing … Continue reading →

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The Dollar’s Not That Strong

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Felix

While I’m throwing darts at Paul Kedrosky, I ought to mention that I also think he’s quite wrong about the dollar. He has a good line — "think of the dollar as Squealer the Pig collectible Beanie Babies circa Christmas … Continue reading →

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Why Banks Should Lend Out Treasury’s Funds

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Felix

Paul Kedrosky has a peculiar argument today, saying that banks shouldn’t lend the money they’re getting from Treasury: Banks are looking at a changed world, one with deleveraging everything, consolidation happening apace, and defaults almost certain to rise rapidly over … Continue reading →

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Media Buy Datapoint of the Day

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Felix

How much is Barack Obama paying to blanket the networks with a half-hour TV buy during prime time this evening? Would you believe about the same amount as it costs to buy 30 seconds of airtime during the Superbowl? According … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Tuesday Edition

Posted on October 29, 2008 by Felix

VW briefly world top company as shortsellers caught: Is Porsche a car company or a market-manipulating hedge fund? Mrs Watanabe and the sudden rise of the yen: "It was common for Japanese retail investors to be offered leverage of 20 … Continue reading →

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The Financial Crisis Hits the World’s Hungry

Posted on October 28, 2008 by Felix

The extremely poor can’t catch a break, it seems. A year ago, with food prices through the roof, they were at risk of starving to death as a result of not being able to afford to eat. But now, with … Continue reading →

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Cognitive Disconnect of the Day

Posted on October 28, 2008 by Felix

This is the front page of nytimes.com earlier this afternoon. It’s a tough time to be a journalist: clearly moves like this are clearly newsworthy, but equally clearly it’s very hard to say anything intelligent about them. Hopes for a … Continue reading →

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The Income Inequality Game

Posted on October 28, 2008 by Felix

Dan Goldstein, the brother of fashion blogger Lauren, has an interesting web project of his own, trying to work out how well people understand inequality in the US. Go give it a twirl; the more people who take the interactive … Continue reading →

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Quote of the Day: Rupert’s Surprise

Posted on October 28, 2008 by Felix

Michael Wolff on how Rupert Murdoch discovered there was more to Dow Jones than just the WSJ: I don’t believe he had any idea there was an enterprise side of the business. I believe I was the one to explain … Continue reading →

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The Spreading Crisis: Finance to Business to Consumer

Posted on October 28, 2008 by Felix

It’s been clear for a while now that the financial crisis has spread into the real economy. But even with that knowledge, today’s consumer confidence numbers are a shocker: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had improved moderately in … Continue reading →

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Adventures in Icelandic Monetary Policy

Posted on October 28, 2008 by Felix

What does it mean that Iceland has just raised interest rates by 600bp, after cutting them by 350bp a couple of weeks ago? I’m not talking about monetary policy here, I’m talking about what it means in practice. Central bank … Continue reading →

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Where Buyers Should be Looking

Posted on October 28, 2008 by Felix

There was an interesting exchange just now on the deals panel, between Jim Casella, of Case Interactive Media, and Michael Wolff. If you have cash right now, said Casella, it’s a great time to be a buyer. This has been … Continue reading →

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The WSJ’s Subscription Model

Posted on October 28, 2008 by Felix

I’m at the Future of Business Media conference, where the wifi is painfully slow and where Robert Thomson, the editor of the WSJ, spoke this morning. He spent some time addressing the subject of whether wsj.com should be free, and … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Monday Edition

Posted on October 27, 2008 by Felix

Greasing the Slide: On vicious cycles in the financial markets. More here. Mark to market for Social Security? Seems reasonable. Paulson Explains Himself: Calling Frank Drebin! Why didn’t Paulson tell Fuld to sell Lehman?

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Did the End of the Investment Banks Cause the Latest Sell-Off?

Posted on October 27, 2008 by Felix

Robert Peston thinks that much of the recent sell-off can be attributed to the decision by Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley to convert into banks: It was caused, to a large extent, by an exceptional and unprecedented shrinkage in the … Continue reading →

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Libor, or the Tango of White-Hot Hate

Posted on October 27, 2008 by Felix

The exegesis on the global financial crisis that you’ve all been waiting for has finally arrived. Ladies and gentlemen, I present to you the incomparable Bernard-Henri Levy: One recalls "Leviathan," Rousseau’s "Social Contract," de la Boetie’s "Discourse on Voluntary Servitude"… … Continue reading →

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The TED Debate

Posted on October 27, 2008 by Felix

Alex Tabarrok puts up a chart of the TED spread over the past 40 years or so, with the clear implication that it’s not at unprecedented levels right now. Alea responds with a chart of something he calls the "TED … Continue reading →

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Ben Stein Watch: October 26, 2008

Posted on October 26, 2008 by Felix

Here’s a quick pop quiz for you, to see how well you understand the credit crisis. There’s only one question: What makes a bank insolvent? (a) When it doesn’t have enough money to pay all its obligations, because the loans … Continue reading →

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Credit Market Datapoint of the Day, AIG Edition

Posted on October 25, 2008 by Felix

What was that about the credit markets improving? Not so fast: American International Group Inc. has used $90.3 billion of a U.S. government credit line since it was bailed out last month… AIG’s latest balance was revealed yesterday by the … Continue reading →

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Stocks: A Bear Case

Posted on October 24, 2008 by Felix

If stocks fall, that means they’re cheaper than they were. And if they’ve gotten cheaper, they must be a better investment, right? That’s the gist of a blog entry from Jim Surowiecki today. But that’s not necessarily how this is … Continue reading →

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How the Lehman Bailout Increased Moral Hazard

Posted on October 24, 2008 by Felix

David Schelicher emails with a provocative question, in the wake of my IM exchange with John Carney yesterday: what if letting Lehman fail actually increased the amount of moral hazard involved in lending to banks? "Moral hazard is based on … Continue reading →

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