Author Archives: Felix

Subprime: Gross Losses are Much Bigger Than Net Losses

I’d like to thank Floyd Norris for responding to my blog entry last week about one of his columns. Norris is a blogger in his own right, of course, but it’s always good to see venerable journalists venturing off their … Continue reading

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Two Trades for 2008

I don’t make predictions. But, what the hell, let’s see how these two trades turn out over the next year. The first is highly speculative, and individual investors aren’t even allowed to do it; the second is highly defensive, and … Continue reading

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The Most-Traded Stocks of the Year

Here’s an interesting exercise: compare this table, of the largest US companies by market capitalization, to this table, of the top stocks in 2007 by dollars traded. For instance, more money changed hands trading Apple shares than trading Exxon Mobil … Continue reading

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Jingle Mail, in Practice

A textbook case of jingle mail: I got an agreement of sale today from a realtor looking for a prequal on a shortsale , the buyer lives next door , he has a current mortgage for $800,000 on a home … Continue reading

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Blogonomics: The Gawker Media Pay Scheme

Gawker Media has moved to a pay-for-traffic business model, and Valleywag’s Paul Boutin has the full memo. Essentially, Gawker Media writers will now be paid in any given month the greater of two numbers: either their base pay, or the … Continue reading

Posted in blogonomics | 1 Comment

Does LVMH Rule the Champagne Market?

Christina Passariello has an interesting WSJ article today on LVMH’s Champagne business, explaining at some length how the French luxury-goods giant sources all the grapes it needs to be the world’s biggest Champagne merchant. I do worry, though, that in … Continue reading

Posted in consumption, stocks | 1 Comment

How I’ve Changed My Mind on Mortgages

The Edge Annual Question this year asks a group of (mostly) scientists what they have changed their mind about and why. I’m no scientist, but this is as good an opportunity as any to make explicit two things, both mortgage-related, … Continue reading

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Stock Market Datapoint of the Day

Dean Baker: Investors in stock have not done very well over the last decade. The S&P 500 rose by a cumulative total of 52.6 percent from December 1997 to December 2007. After adjusting for inflation, the increase was 17.3 percent, … Continue reading

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My Predictions for 2008

Teresa, a loyal reader, writes: I was wondering, can you please post a blog with all your predictions for 2008? president? world series? best S&P sector? worst S&P sector? favorite stock pick for the year 2008? favorite dow 30 component … Continue reading

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Exports to the Rescue?

Paul Krugman has an interesting chart, showing US exports rising even as residential investment has been falling. Indeed, he writes, “thanks to the weak dollar, they’ve risen almost enough to offset the housing plunge”. Now this is one of those … Continue reading

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Extra Credit, Weekend Edition

Even before the Internet, news was pretty close to free: Justin Fox hits the nail on the head. (Related: Chris Anderson’s talk at Nokia.) Return to the Trial, or, why Western Union sucks: “Most of us need not concern ourselves … Continue reading

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The Economics of Non-Judicial Foreclosures

Have I mentioned of late how much I love my commenters? Many thanks to James Moore, who adds a very interesting twist to my obsession over the proportion of mortgages which are non-recourse. Moore gets straight to the heart of … Continue reading

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If We’re Looking at AUM, Let’s Also Look at LUM

As we learned from the WSJ last month, “assets under management” is not the most useful of metrics to use when judging the size of a hedge fund. For example, bond fund Y2K said it had assets under management of … Continue reading

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Good and Bad Reasons to Worry About the Credit Crisis of 2008

Floyd Norris’s column today reads as though it was written by two different people. Most if it is very good – a clear explanation of where the next credit crisis might come from. But then, at the end, it falls … Continue reading

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Warren Buffett, Bond Insurer

I’m fascinated by the news that Warren Buffett is starting up a new bond insurer. On the one hand, it makes perfect sense: he’s an expert in insurance, he already has a triple-A credit rating, and his competitors in the … Continue reading

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Explaining CDOs, Overcollateralization Edition

I got an email from my friend Todd yesterday, saying that despite my best efforts, he still doesn’t understand CDOs. This puzzled me: Todd’s a very clever chap, and he even works at an investment bank. CDOs are easy to … Continue reading

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Extra Credit, Friday Edition

Wall Street Journal’s Cursory Story on Collateralized Debt Obligations: Yves Smith takes it apart. Are dead-tree magazines good or bad for the climate? Why Portfolio.com has a larger carbon footprint than Portfolio magazine. World’s Biggest Building Coming to Moscow: Crystal … Continue reading

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McDonald’s Datapoint of the Day

George Will: McDonald’s exemplifies the role of small businesses in Americans’ upward mobility. The company is largely a confederation of small businesses: 85 percent of its U.S. restaurants — average annual sales, $2.2 million — are owned by franchisees. McDonald’s … Continue reading

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Are Subprime Losses Being Exaggerated?

John Berry dedicates his Bloomberg column today to debunking exaggerated estimates of the magnitude of the subprime crisis. $300 billion, he asks? $400 billion? Pshaw. A more realistic amount is probably half or less than those exaggerated projections — say … Continue reading

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Uncovering Material Information at Merrill Lynch

It’s the bottomless write-downs! According to William Tanona of Goldman Sachs, the write-downs we’ve already seen at Citigroup and Merrill Lynch aren’t even close to being final. Indeed, he reckons that both banks will see 11-figure write-downs in the fourth … Continue reading

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Silly Idea of the Day: Grocession

Are you tired yet of the debate about whether or not we are in, or might even already have entered, a recession? Given that nobody knows and nobody can know, the whole thing seems a little bit pointless to me. … Continue reading

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The Genesis of a CDO

Portfolio’s flash-based explanation of what a CDO is has proved extremely popular, I’m happy to say. Now the WSJ has got in on the act as well, with a much more detailed (and much less metaphorical) flash-based explanation of how … Continue reading

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Afghan Microlenders Also Take Deposits

Caitlin Liu has a wonderful story today on microfinance in Afghanistan; do check out the slide show, too. The bit which jumped out at me was this: Usually run by non-profit groups, microfinance agencies offer loans to the poor without … Continue reading

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Sallie Mae: Now You Can Buy a Mandatory Convert!

On February 22, Sallie Mae is contractually obliged to pay Citigroup almost $2 billion for 44 million of its own shares, at $45.25 apiece. That’s despite the fact that the shares are currently trading at less than half that level. … Continue reading

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Extra Credit, Thursday Edition

Warren Buffett: The Awe of His Schucks: How the Sage of Omaha massages the media. Home Prices Fall for 10th Straight Month The Davos Question 08: What one thing do you think that countries, companies or individuals must do to … Continue reading

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