Author Archives: Felix

Everything You Ever Wanted to Know About the Buy Side

Posted on January 26, 2008 by Felix

This is eight different kinds of genius.

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Extra Credit, Weekend Edition

Posted on January 26, 2008 by Felix

The Great Deal Spread of 2008: A merger-arb hit list. Might Google Buy the New York Times? I thought that was my idea! The global economic impact of private equity investigated in most comprehensive report: Yes, that really is the … Continue reading →

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Getting Results in Davos

Posted on January 25, 2008 by Felix

I’ve been on a mini-crusade while in Davos: every time I meet someone with a truncated RSS feed or no RSS feed at all, I get all evangelistic on them about the wonders of full RSS. And guess what – … Continue reading →

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The Millennium Development Goals Take Center Stage in Davos

Posted on January 25, 2008 by Felix

If Bono did not exist, it would be necessary to invent him. The big press conference at Davos today was full of important people making important statements about how very important it is that we meet the Millennium Development Goals; … Continue reading →

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Sharing a Cab with an Ayatollah

Posted on January 25, 2008 by Felix

My Only In Davos moment this morning: sharing a cab from the train station to the conference center with an honest-to-goodness ayatollah, Mahdi Hadavi. He was a panelist at a session I attended yesterday, on faith and modernization, moderated by … Continue reading →

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When a Merger Arbitrage Goes Sour

Posted on January 25, 2008 by Felix

The first rule of merger arbitrage is simple: Don’t Try This At Home. If you’re a retail investor and one of your stocks spikes after it agrees to be taken over, sell the stock. Don’t get greedy and wait for … Continue reading →

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SocGen’s Big Mistakes

Posted on January 25, 2008 by Felix

Did Jerome Kerviel and Societe Generale cause Monday’s market meltdown? I asked the question yesterday, and today it’s looking increasingly as though the answer might be yes. His positions are being reported at between 40 billion and 50 billion euros, … Continue reading →

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Why I Still Think WSJ.com Will be Free

Posted on January 25, 2008 by Felix

I’ve said repeatedly on this site that Rupert Murdoch should and will make WSJ.com free. So how am I feeling now that he seems to have said precisely the opposite in Davos? Not quite as wrong as you might think, … Continue reading →

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Gates: Underwhelming

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

Bill Gates, dishevelled as ever, launched into a hugely-anticipated speech this evening in Davos, the closest thing that this conference has to a keynote. Gates managed to splash the speech all over the front page of today’s WSJ even before … Continue reading →

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Davos Surprise: Rick Warren

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

The biggest surprise of Davos so far for me? Rick Warren. Being a cosmopolitan atheist type, I’d heard of him, of course, but thought he was, well, author of a bestselling self-help book and pastor of a megachurch somewhere. What … Continue reading →

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Debt and Equity: “Fundamentally the Same Thing”

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

On January 22, 2007, I wrote a slightly confused blog entry called "in defense of leverage", which tried to explain that debt and equity are not nearly as different as people often think. Exactly one year later, on January 22, … Continue reading →

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The Power of Collaborative Innovation In Action

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

The theme of Davos this year is "the power of collaborative innovation". As it happens, I’m talking to one veteran delegate who explains that I’m wearing a piece of collaborative innovation around my neck. In years past, the World Economic … Continue reading →

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SocGen: The Cause of Monday’s Sell-Off?

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

Was a single 30-year old French equity-derivatives trader directly responsible for the emergency 75bp rate cut that Ben Bernanke announced on Tuesday morning? It’s entirely possible. The fraud at Societe Generale was uncovered over the weekend, at which point the … Continue reading →

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Optimism over Africa

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

Paul Collier and other old Africa hands gathered in Davos on Wednesday to talk about "Africa’s governance dividend". The past few years have seen Africa’s strongest growth in living memory, and the mood was cautiously optimistic – risks of a … Continue reading →

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Musharraf on the Islamic Bomb

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

Pervez Musharraf, speaking at Davos, is a bit peevish: We are a nuclear state. Why does the world insist on calling this an Islamic bomb? There is no Hindu bomb or Jew bomb or Buddhist Bomb or Christian Bomb. This … Continue reading →

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Equity Derivatives House of the Year

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

An as-yet-unnamed trader at SocGen has somehow contrived to lose more than $7 billion by making bad directional bets on equity indices. Bloomberg’s Gregory Viscusi is on irony watch: "At first this seemed like a joke," said Nicolas Rutsaert, an … Continue reading →

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What Stock Market Volatility?

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

The WSJ has a great little interactive feature today – or at least it would be great if it didn’t start talking at you the minute you opened it and every time you click on a new tab. Turn your … Continue reading →

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What if the Bears are Right?

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

Let’s say – just for the sake of argument – that the bears are right, and that we’ve finally come to the end of a long capital-markets boom. Global equity markets are going to fall dramatically, thanks to falling corporate … Continue reading →

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Extra Credit, Soros Edition

Posted on January 24, 2008 by Felix

The worst market crisis in 60 years: Soros is bearish. Soros Says U.S. Recession Is ‘Almost Inevitable’; Soros Sees End of Dollar-Backed Credit Expansion: Bloomberg on Soros. The gloomy gospel according to George Soros: Leonard on Soros. Systemic Failure: Norris … Continue reading →

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Davos Round-Up

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

Ned Phelps: Nice guy. And prescient, too: he put all his Nobel Prize money into bonds. Esther Dyson: Speaks fluent Russian. Mike Arrington: Rocked up in faded bluejeans and dirty white sneakers. Masters of the Universe not visibly impressed. Rupert … Continue reading →

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Davos Moment of the Day

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

Igor Shevchenko, a Ukrainian lawyer, introduces himself to Walter Isaacson of the Aspen Institute; it just so happens (really!) that Shevchenko has a copy of Isaacson’s biography of Henry Kissinger in his bag. Isaacson signs it, of course, and then … Continue reading →

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The Fed’s 125bp Two-Step

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

My blog entry about the surprise rate cut yesterday was very much a gut reaction, put out very quickly as my gate was being called at Heathrow. But it’s received a lot of attention in the blogosphere, and with 24 … Continue reading →

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Merger Arbitrage Site of the Day

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

No more relying on Dana Cimilluca to find failed merger-arb trades! It turns out that a chap called Plamen Tsolov has created Arbitrage View, a web page with a continually-updated list of arbitrage opportunities in pending merger deals in the … Continue reading →

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But What Does He Think About Motherhood and Apple Pie?

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

I just walked into the opening press conference at Davos, where the co-chairmen of the World Economic Forum are talking about what they are looking to talk about and achieve. Tony Blair is beaming admiringly at Henry Kissinger, but the … Continue reading →

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Davos: Bearishness Rules

Posted on January 23, 2008 by Felix

I’ve only just arrived in Davos, and already I’m wondering how I’m going to be able to cope: the scene here is far crazier than at any other gabfest I’ve been to. The smart people just blow it off altogether … Continue reading →

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