Category Archives: stocks

Long-Term Stock Market Volatility Datapoint of the Day

Warren Buffett, take note: Although mean reversion makes a strong negative contribution to long-horizon variance, it is more than offset by the other components. Using a predictive system, we estimate annualized 30-year variance to be nearly 1.5 times the 1-year … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | 3 Comments

GE Datapoint of the Day

Rolfe Winkler has run the numbers on how GE compares to other banks (yes, GE is a bank) and has come to the conclusion that as of December 31, GE had total tangible common equity of… wait for it… $5 … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | 2 Comments

Hedge Fund Datapoint of the Day

For most of 2007, Target stock was trading in the low 60s. If you’d bought $2 billion of stock at those levels, you’d have about $1 billion today, since the share price now is in the low 30s. That’s the … Continue reading

Posted in hedge funds, stocks | 1 Comment

Earnings Datapoint of the Day

Floyd Norris reports today that the S&P 500, in aggregate, is about to report its first quarter ever of negative earnings. Howard Silverblatt, S.&P.’s index maven, reports that with almost three-quarters of the companies in the index having reported fourth-quarter … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | 1 Comment

The US Airways Share Price

Can we please do something about the reporting of US Airways’s stock price? The NYT says today that "the airline’s share price shot up 13 percent Friday", and even the Economist is blogging the same thing. The clear implication is … Continue reading

Posted in journalism, stocks | 1 Comment

Buying Equities for their Option Value

Commenter dWj makes a good point about stocks: they are naturally going to be more richly valued than bonds, because of their option value. "Stockholders are long volatility," he writes, "at least relative to bondholders" — and he’s quite right, … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | 1 Comment

Why Aren’t Stocks Falling?

As SAR notes, the "longer and deeper recession" meme is "becoming the popular view" — it’s increasingly difficult to find people who really think we’ll bounce back in the second half of this year, and economists generally are much more … Continue reading

Posted in economics, stocks | 1 Comment

Taking a Bankrupt Company Public

One of the defining features of the dot-com bubble was the long line of loss-making companies coming to market with IPOs. That all came to an end when the bubble burst, and right now nobody is coming to market with … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | Comments Off

Default Recovery Swaps

With Bank of America flip-flopping on whether the appointment of a car czar constitutes an event of default for CDS purposes, Alea, who found the flip-flop, also finds a new default derivative product: the Default Recovery Swap. These things aren’t … Continue reading

Posted in derivatives, stocks | Comments Off

Q Datapoint of the Day

Remember Pimco’s graph of Q showing it around the 0.3 level? I wasn’t sure where that number came from, and now CLSA’s Russell Napier has come out with a slightly more realistic (to me) number — which is also a … Continue reading

Posted in stocks | Comments Off