Monthly Archives: September 2008

When Stocks Soar

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

If a stock ever moved resolutely sideways, it was Wachovia. From September 2004 until September 2007, it basically traded at $50 a share: sometimes a little less, sometimes a little more. And then it started a year-long decline, which culminated … Continue reading →

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Lies, Damn Lies, and Tourism Statistics

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

In 1995, the owner of the Great Smoky Mountain Railroad sued Warner Brothers. The movie studio had used the railroad as a location for the train crash scene in The Fugitive, and the railroad had asked in return for an … Continue reading →

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What Just Happened to Google?

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

If you’re a fund manager, you’re long Google, and you need to report the value of your position as of the end of the quarter, what on earth are you going to say? Google traded in a surprisingly narrow band … Continue reading →

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Hedge Funds: The Next Shoe to Drop

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

You think things are bad now? Just you wait: the chart above gives you a very good indication of what Christine Williamson calls the "bloodbath ahead" in the hedge-fund industry. No one wants to be invested in an underperforming hedge … Continue reading →

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The Dysfunctional Credit Market

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

One of the problems with a credit crisis is that it’s much harder to track fixed-income markets than it is stock markets. Name a stock or a stock index, and it’s easy to see how prices reacted to every minute … Continue reading →

Posted in bonds and loans | Leave a comment

The Quantum Physics of the Bailout

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

Right now I feel as though we’re all, collectively, like Schrödinger’s cat before the box is opened, except that instead of two different outcomes there are dozens. Will we revert to ad-hoc, case-by-case responses requiring no legislative approval? Will the … Continue reading →

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When the CDX Rolls

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

I spoke this morning to Marc Barrachin of Markit, the company which owns and runs most of the benchmark CDS indices. Markit recently delayed, for a second time, the biannual "roll" where the components of its indices are updated to … Continue reading →

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How Bad Could Things Get?

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

Your cheery upbeat forecast, on a day when stocks are up 3%, comes from Willem Buiter: If the markets fear that the nays have thrown their toys out of the pram for the long term, the following scenario is quite … Continue reading →

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When Regulation Works

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

It’s rapidly become a cliché to describe the current crisis as one of a lack of regulatory oversight. But amidst all the recriminations about how the financial sector should have had much tougher regulation, there’s been precious little evidence that … Continue reading →

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Libor: 6.88%

Posted on September 30, 2008 by Felix

Are you in any way reassured by the dead cat bouce in various global stock markets? Don’t be. This is a credit crisis, remember, not a stock-market crisis: the impact on stocks is just collateral damage. And this morning, overnight … Continue reading →

Posted in bonds and loans | Leave a comment