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Category Archives: stocks
Jim Surowiecki on How Stocks Work
After I wondered whether US stock market investors should think about learning from Japan, Jim Surowiecki responded with a carefully-argued blog entry about Japanese stocks entitled "There’s a Reason It’s Cheap", concentrating on the fact that Japanese companies generally have … Continue reading
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Stock Volatility Datapoint of the Day
We’re used to big stock-market swings in the last hour or even half-hour of trading. But the last ten minutes? The Dow was at 9,350 at 3:48; ten minutes later, it was at 8,960. That’s a drop of almost 400 … Continue reading
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Stocks: A Bear Case
If stocks fall, that means they’re cheaper than they were. And if they’ve gotten cheaper, they must be a better investment, right? That’s the gist of a blog entry from Jim Surowiecki today. But that’s not necessarily how this is … Continue reading
Second-Hand Book Datapoint of the Day
"Dow, 30,000 by 2008": Why It’s Different This Time, by Robert Zuccaro, is, unfortunately, out of stock at Amazon.com, so you can’t buy it for its cover price of $24.95. But there are three used copies available. One is $48.79; … Continue reading
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Here We Go Again
Wow. I go off the grid for one afternoon, and the world falls apart? Whatever force it was that caused my JetBlue flight to sit on the tarmac for hours yesterday clearly is much more malign than I’d thought, at … Continue reading
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Why Stock-Market Volatility is Perfectly Natural
With the Dow down another 300 points this morning (yawn), we’re all getting used to stock-market volatility. Traders are all psychologists now: "Psychology and emotion are a big part of what moves the market," said Andrew Brooks, head of stock … Continue reading
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Disappearing Stock-Market Earnings
Slide of the Day comes from John Mauldin, via Paul Kedrosky: he shows how estimates for the S&P 500’s 2009 earnings have come down from $81.52 in March to just $48.52 now. That’s a drop of 40% in seven months. … Continue reading
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Towards a Google Buyback
I’m generally not a fan of stock buybacks. I’ve hated on the idea in the past, especially as regards high-flying tech stock Apple — but weirdly, I don’t have the same problem with the prospect of Google doing it. CEO … Continue reading
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Questions for Value Investors
Here’s a contest for you — since y’all did so badly on the last one — can anybody find me a value investor who isn’t saying that there’s loads of cheap stocks out there and that they’re pretty bullish over … Continue reading
The Unreassurable Markets
Megan Barnett has a good question: how come investment banks’ CDS spreads are widening, even in the face of an all-but-explicit government guarantee that they won’t be allowed to fail? The easy answer is that the markets are panicking. Boy … Continue reading
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A Dark Morning
A hardy perennial in sci-fi movies is the scene where people start firing ever-larger weapons at some alien object, only to see it wobble a little instead of getting obliterated as expected. I’m beginning to see the TED spread (432bp … Continue reading
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The Very Slow Thaw
The speed and size of yesterday’s stock-market rally — which is being continued today — should absolutely not be taken as any indication that the credit crunch is over. It represents hope that the crunch will be over — and … Continue reading
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Are More Big Falls Ahead?
Justin Fox is worried about today’s rally, and whether it portends future falls: We can learn very little about the future direction of the market from which direction stocks moved in today. But we can learn a lot about the … Continue reading
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Information Overload Datapoint of the Day
The Dow swung 780 points between its low point and high point just in the first hour of trading this morning. This is a crazy market, and it’s overloading the information systems: here’s a screencap I took just now, from … Continue reading
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What Just Happened?
I’ve long said that end-of-day market reports are silly, since the only thing reporters can normally say with any confidence is "the market moved and we don’t know why". But what we’re seeing right now isn’t moves so much as … Continue reading
TED Breaks 400bp
So much for unprecedented global coordinated rate cuts, not to mention a UK bank bailout which could reach a mind-boggling 500 billion pounds. TED’s at 403bp, European stocks are sharply lower across the board, and the US stock market, after … Continue reading
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The Burst Commodity Bubble
Do you remember the food and commodity bubble? Sure you do. It wasn’t that long ago. The rise of India and China was inexorable, and the supply of food in general and meat in particular was never going to keep … Continue reading
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The Iceland-Dow Connection
Josh has been watching the Icelandic krona: This morning, the ISK reached a nadir of 350 ISK to the EUR, and I was placing phone calls to travel agencies trying to book the cheapest holiday of my life. Then, suddenly … Continue reading
Why I’m Not Buying the Financials
At 10am this morning, Evan Newmark stuck his neck out, with a blog entry entitled "Why I’m Buying the Financials". They were spiralling downwards nastily at the time, but obviously the piece had been written long before the market opened. … Continue reading
Stocks: Are Retail Investors Buying?
For many years, whenever any global economy threatened to run out of steam, the US consumer would step in to save the day. Now, it seems, the US consumer is tapped out — at least when it comes to personal … Continue reading
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So Much for the Bailout
On Monday morning, it looked as though Congress was going to pass the bailout bill, and the S&P 500 opened at 1,204. Here we are on Friday afternoon, and Congress has indeed passed the bailout bill; the S&P closed the … Continue reading
The Lloyds-HBOS Arbitrage
Robert Peston is on form this morning, writing about the proposed takeover of HBOS by Lloyds TSB: If you believe that the terms of the deal won’t and can’t be changed, the current HBOS share price is an opportunity to … Continue reading
When Stocks Soar
If a stock ever moved resolutely sideways, it was Wachovia. From September 2004 until September 2007, it basically traded at $50 a share: sometimes a little less, sometimes a little more. And then it started a year-long decline, which culminated … Continue reading
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What Just Happened to Google?
If you’re a fund manager, you’re long Google, and you need to report the value of your position as of the end of the quarter, what on earth are you going to say? Google traded in a surprisingly narrow band … Continue reading
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Stock Indices: The 10-Year View
How have various stock indices done over the past ten years? The Brazilian Bovespa might have fallen by 10% today, but you’d still have been much better off there than here in the US. On the other hand, if you … Continue reading
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