Category Archives: prediction markets

The Problem With InTrade

I recently withdrew money from an InTrade account I’ve had for some years. The total cost of withdrawing the money was $53.10: A $20 fee to InTrade for "processing the bank wire", a €10 ($13.10) wire-transfer fee to National Irish … Continue reading

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Tradesports, RIP

Tradesports, one of the most venerable real-money prediction markets, has closed. I’m not sure what this means for spin-off site InTrade, which recently increased the cost of withdrawing funds. But it can’t be good news, especially now that US election … Continue reading

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Chart of the Day: Palin on InTrade

Here’s today’s intraday chart of Sarah Palin’s contract at InTrade: this is meant to show the crowd’s wisdom on the question of whether she will be John McCain’s vice-presidential nominee. (The times are Irish, so they’re 5 hours ahead of … Continue reading

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Chart of the Day: The InTrade Electoral Map

Electoralmap.net puts the latest InTrade prices into graphical form: Looks like Florida alone isn’t remotely enough to get McCain into the White House. Update: Chris Masse points me to electoralmarkets.com, a sexy flash version of the above. Cool! (HT: Caveat … Continue reading

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Timing the Recession

Don Fishback and Barry Ritholtz are shocked — shocked! — that the InTrade recession contract is based on hard GDP numbers rather than, um, something else, maybe an NBER pronouncement the timing of which is entirely unknown. The fact is … Continue reading

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Prediction Markets: A Probability is not a Certainty

Mark Gongloff has a rather silly attack on prediction markets today. Let’s start at the beginning: John McCain’s presidential campaign is doomed — at least, if you still believe what political futures markets indicate. At the Irish electronic exchange Intrade, … Continue reading

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Spitzer’s Resignation Odds

The SPITZER.RESIGN.MAR08 contract at InTrade has been trading between 80 and 90 today, with the last trade at 85: essentially, the market is saying that there’s a 15% probability he won’t resign by the end of the month. Obviously, there … Continue reading

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Don’t Trust Prediction Markets in the Final Hours

After the polls closed in Texas last night, the DEM.TX.OBAMA contract on InTrade – the one judging his chances of winning the Texas primary – spiked up to 85, before embarking on a long and steady decline to zero. Clearly … Continue reading

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Dependent Variables in Political Prediction Markets

There’s a great example of the mathematics of dependent and independent variables over at InTrade right now. The betting company has just launched a CLINTON.LIFELINE contract, which reflects her chances of winning all three of the Ohio, Texas, and Pennsylvania … Continue reading

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Tilda Swinton: Upset of the Night

How did InTrade do at the Oscars? Pretty well, it turns out. All the favorites – anybody trading above say 65 – won in their category. Immediately before the announcements were made, No Country For Old Men was trading in … Continue reading

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