Category Archives: housing

Frannie’s Future

The NYT talks today of "Mr. Paulson’s long-term desire to wind down the companies’ portfolios, drastically shrink the role of both Fannie and Freddie and perhaps eliminate their unique status altogether". It’s not a bad idea, and I like the … Continue reading

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The Frannie Bailout and the Prisoner’s Dilemma

John Hempton has an interesting take on the Frannie bailout: the markets forced Treasury to take this step by being irrational. It’s almost as though there was some kind of collusion going on. Remember the prisoner’s dilemma? Given the choice … Continue reading

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Rescuing Frannie

It’s easy to get caught up in the minutiae — should shareholders be wiped out, or merely massively diluted? What should happen to preferred shareholders? Can the government create a new class of senior subordinate debt, and if so, should … Continue reading

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Rent vs Buy Datapoint of the Day

How do we know we’re in a housing bubble? One way of knowing is by looking at house prices, which during the bubble were rising much more quickly than rents. That was clearly unsustainable. But today, in a CPI FAQ, … Continue reading

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How are Covered Bond Ratings Determined?

Remember covered bonds? They’re ever so safe, because not only are they overcollateralized, they’re also guaranteed by the issuing bank. As a result, Hank Paulson has been dropping hints that he’d like to see the mortgage industry move in the … Continue reading

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Global Property Bubbles: Not Bursting

The housing bubble was not confined to the United States. If anything, the bubble here was later and smaller than in most of Europe. So it’s hardly surprising that house-price declines are not confined to the US either. According to … Continue reading

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The Upside of Cluelessness

Chris Kissell has a great headline over his story that only 26% of homeowners don’t know what kind of mortgage they have, down from 34% a year ago: "Americans less clueless". But there’s also a silver lining to this cluelessness … Continue reading

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Peter Niculescu, Teflon Executive

How did Peter Niculescu manage to get promoted to the important new position of Chief Business Officer at Fannie Mae? This is how Fannie Mae describes his history at the company after he joined in 1999: In his previous position … Continue reading

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The FBI and Mortgages

The LAT’s Richard Schmitt knows how to write a startling lede: WASHINGTON — Long before the mortgage crisis began rocking Main Street and Wall Street, a top FBI official made a chilling, if little-noticed, prediction: The booming mortgage business, fueled … Continue reading

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Retail Datapoints of the Day

Prime Fifth Avenue retail rents, per square foot, in 2000: $675 Prime Fifth Avenue retail rents, per square foot, in 2007: $1,500 Prime Fifth Avenue retail rents, per square foot, in 2008: $2,500 Square footage of the Saks Fifth Avenue … Continue reading

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What’s Driving Fannie and Freddie

Fannie and Freddie are down again; the shares are so cheap at this point that even a relatively modest fluctuation of less than 80 cents in the Freddie share price will hit the headlines as a 20% move. The fact … Continue reading

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Read Dylan

Justin Wolfers, meet Tim Wheeler, the CEO of UK property group Brixton. Mr Wheeler said the opening lines of the American songwriter’s All Along the Watchtower “seem to capture the beleaguered mindset of the UK commercial real estate market”. For … Continue reading

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New York Real Estate Datapoint of the Day

This full-floor apartment on Park Avenue first hit the market in November 2005 with an asking price of $18.9 million, or $3,000 per square foot. Almost three years later, it’s still unsold. Maybe it’s a function of the $17,138 per … Continue reading

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London House Price Datapoint of the Day

House prices are finally falling in London: Asking prices in London fell 5.3% in August, according to the Rightmove house price survey – equivalent to a ߣ21,000 drop in a single month. Prices in some of the most sought-after suburbs … Continue reading

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Borrower Behavior: The Big Unknown

Aline van Duyn tells an increasingly familiar story today: that while corporations have a very clear hierarchy of debt payments, with preferred stock, mezzanine debt, senior debt, senior secured debt, and all that, individuals do not — and they don’t … Continue reading

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A Brief History of Home Equity Loans

Louise Story has an excellent history of the home equity loan on the front page of today’s NYT. She talks a lot about the explosion in such products — outstandings rose a thousandfold, to $1 trillion, from the early 1980s … Continue reading

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Laughing at Alan Greenspan

I’m no big fan of Alan Greenspan or his pronouncements, especially those where he tries to persuade us that he wasn’t wrong in the past, he was right. There’s a classic example in his latest interview with David Wessel: In … Continue reading

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Commuting Datapoint of the Day

Matthew Garrahan reports on the housing bust in Merced, California: Like Stockton and Modesto, Merced is within commuting distance of San Francisco and the Bay Area, which made it appealing to investors. Some numbers from Google Maps: Merced, CA to … Continue reading

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Manhattan Housing Wealth Datapoint of the Day

Jonathan Miller takes a look at what’s happened to Manhattan apartment prices over the past three years — since, more or less, the national housing market peaked in 2005. On a year-over-year basis, it turns out, Manhattan co-ops have appreciated … Continue reading

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Are Banks Systematically Evicting Renters?

The Washington Post, this morning, fronts a story about the troubles facing renters when their landlords are foreclosed upon. It’s much longer on anecdote than it is on data, but even so it puzzles me. The clear feeling one gets … Continue reading

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Should You Tap Your Heloc Before it’s Frozen?

The home equity line of credit, or Heloc, is a wonderful thing: the best way of having liquid funds available in case of emergency you could possibly imagine. Your net worth might be tied up in your house, but that … Continue reading

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Why Big Mortgage Losses are Here to Stay

John Hempton is doing an admirable job teasing out the dynamics of the US mortgage market, and asking whether the losses we’re currently seeing are due to fraud or to broader economic stress. If it’s mainly fraud, he says, that … Continue reading

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Meredith Whitney and the Hierarchy of Payments

It used to be that if you were having difficulty making your mortgage payment, you’d end up, one way or another, putting it on your credit card — if only by being unable to pay off much of your credit … Continue reading

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Where’s Calomiris’s Paper?

Charlie Calomiris and two co-authors have a piece in today’s Washington Post making an improbable case: Most Americans have not experienced any significant decline in the value of their homes — nor are they likely to. "In our research," they … Continue reading

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Location, Location, Location

BusinessWeek had a good idea this week: look at big metropolitan areas and see how the best-performing zip codes have compared to the worst-performing ones. Unfortunately, the final implementation is atrocious: it involves clicking laboriously through an interminable slide show, … Continue reading

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