Tuesday, March 13, 2007

Help me change my mind on mortgages!

Brad Setser asks whether I've changed my mind about the mortgage market in the wake of today's data and the market's reaction to it. I haven't really looked at either yet, and tomorrow I'm going to be spending the day at Disneyland. So do please use the comments section here to give me all the datapoints I need. Then I'll answer his question on Thursday, probably.

Posted by Felix at 23:37 EST

Comments

I presume Brad is arguing that you've already spent time in Disneyland - the question being whether it was fantasyland or tomorrowland that you were in...

Posted by: tbelcher at 0:36 EST, March 14, 2007

Mark Thoma put a link on his site to a detailed comment on the Morgenson piece and your take on it at NakedCapitalism, "Reactions to the New York Times Mortgage Market Story:"

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/03/reactions-to-new-york-times-mortgage.html

There's a later post that might also be helpful:

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2007/03/tinkerbell-market.html

Posted by: Richard Black at 2:18 EST, March 14, 2007

well for one thing, the more the 10-year yield drops the better it is. being some 75 basis points below overnight rates certainly helps. and the weekly MBA data doesn't certainly point to a collapse in the housing market. stagnation? sure. inventory overhang? yep. but it doesn't appear yet like anything that would cold-cock the economy. nonetheless, i seem to be a card-carrying optimist these days. i still think corporate balance sheets matter more when it comes to the labor market, the ultimate source of any spillover. and so far so good. stock buybacks are all the rage with the leftover cash.

Posted by: tmcgee at 10:02 EST, March 14, 2007

MBA data doesn't certainly point to a collapse in the housing market.

Bah, the panic atmosphere is driving me nuts! We've hit a record a whole freaking 4 bps above the worst we saw in 2002, and most of it isn't even in the sub-prime sector. This is all premature goldbug/perma-bear triumphalism....

Posted by: Bernard Guerrero at 15:12 EST, March 14, 2007

When in Disneyland, don't forget to see the Alice in Wonderland attraction. When Alice says: "We're not in Kansas anymore", she's really referring to the crash of 2007.

Posted by: Lorne Brown at 23:22 EST, March 14, 2007

When Alice says: "We're not in Kansas anymore", she's really referring to the crash of 2007.

Err, methinks you refer to non-Disney property "The Wizard of Oz" and the heroine of same, Dorothy.

Posted by: Bernard Guerrero at 10:57 EST, March 15, 2007

I think that things will start to turn around soon in the home mortgage market..we'll see.

Posted by: UK Home Mortgages at 15:32 EST, March 30, 2007

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